All Star Break: Revisiting the Draft

With the 10 day fantasy matchup, there are no stats to review today. So for the last blog in the series of All Star Break posts, let’s revisit the post-draft blog post and see how things have panned out.

The first thing I want to check out is the keeper trading that went on.

Biggest Winner: Dave. Dave turned a mid-level keeper (Jose Abreu) and an elite keeper (Kris Bryant) into a first and second round pick. It was arguable how big of an overpay that was by Arthur back then, but at this point it is clear that Dave won the trade. With the number 8 draft slot Dave grabbed Jose Altuve who is the number one player in fantasy, and with the other pick Dave got Chris Sale, a top 5 Starting Pitcher. Meanwhile Jose Abreu has disappointed while Kris Bryant has been fine. Advantage Dave.

Biggest Loser: Michael, with a nomination to Dean. Michael thought Matt Carpenter was due for regression after his second half swoon in 2015, well, that hasn’t happened. Carpenter was a top 5 2^nd and 3^rd baseman in the first half the year. Instead, Michael traded away Matt Carpenter and for Chris Archer who appeared to have better keeper value, but has been a disaster. Also, Michael targeted Justin Upton pre-draft so he traded up in the 2^nd round to get him, Justin Upton has also been a disaster. Dean’s biggest missteps were trading away the Monster known as Josh Donaldson, but in return he was able to acquire Clayton Kershaw in the draft, so not all is lost. Dean also traded down in the 2^nd round of the draft to increase the value of his Joey Votto 2^nd round keeper, Joey Votto has not been good.

The post-draft blog written back in April was about what each team had to do to succeed this year, let’s look back at how things have gone.

Max: he needed elite production from his top end picks, that hasn’t happened. McCutchen, Dee Gordon, Prince Fielder, Troy Tulowitzki…ok I could actually keep going all the way through about his first 11^th picks. Bumgarner is about the only one to work out. Brandon Belt in round 12 was solid and of course Trevor Story has been great. Max has clearly shifted to trying to grab prospects for next year, even though he is by no means out of the Championship Race. The draft was a swing and a miss, it happens.

Brian and Josh: David Peralta and Maikel Franco did not pan out as needed, but Jason Kipnis and Johnny Cueto have. This team has been carried by its keepers: Mookie Betts, Matt Carpenter, and Corey Seager. Late pick in Dellin Betances has paid off as well.

Marcley: This team rode Bryce Harper for awhile, but he has cooled off quickly. Carlos Gonzalez has been a good value when he was taken at pick 38, but Freddie Freeman at 43 has not worked out. Gregory Polanco in the middle rounds was called out post-draft as needing to develop power for Marcley to succeed, this has happened.  Stephen Piscotty was also propped up after the draft and has been very good in St. Louis. In all, the players Josh Marcley needed after the draft to step up have stepped up, but Josh has left this team to fester in the summer heat, and he is quickly falling out of contention.

Michael: Michael needed his keeper pitchers to be elite coming out of the draft, that hasn’t happened. The other need was for a late flyer pick to hit, that also hasn’t happened. The team success so far has been driven by elite production from Kyle Seager and Adam Jones and Albert Pujols being good value selections, even though I couldn’t trade Pujols for pennies two months ago, oh and that Mike Trout guy is pretty good.

Dave: post-draft I talked about the things that would have to happen for Dave NOT to succeed, given that he was the heavy favorite with his keepers and high end picks. The first item was a sophomore slump from Carlos Correa, this is somewhat happening, even if I don’t think anyone is ready to write him off. Paul Goldshmidt has been fine even though Dave probably wishes he would have taken Trout or Kershaw instead. Unfortunately for us, Dave hit on most of his pitcher selections. Stephen Strasburg is having the career year we’ve been waiting on. The other pick I called out as a potential miss was Jeurys Familia. Despite un-inspiring stats, Familia has not blown a save yet. Late Round picks that were called out as hits have been just that, including Wil Myers. The snake bite to this season so far has been injuries and how Dave has handled them, he is getting healthier for the second half and is still in fine shape to make the playoffs.

Paul: post-draft, it was called out that Paul’s high end picks needed to perform as such (no duh, sorry, that was what I would write if nothing jumped out at me). Well it has been hit and miss for Paul. Jose Bautista hasn’t performed, but Cespedes has. JD Martinez was fine before the injury even if he did strike out a ton as expected and Eric Hosmer has been awesome. So, mixed bag. His late pick of DJ Lemahieu did indeed pan out well and he refuses to part ways with him in trade offers I’ve been sending for months. Ian Desmond was a great late round pick as well. Paul had a solid draft.

Keith: Keith’s little accident of Miguel Cabrera has panned out well, even if Jose Altuve would have been better. Keith’s real mistakes came in rounds 3 through 5. Keuchel, Sonny Gray, and Matt Kemp have all been disasters. It was called out that for Keith to succeed that he would need players like Odor and Jung Ho Kang to overperform for Keith to succeed. Well, they did for stretches, but largely Kang has been injured and Odor has been inconsistent with stretches of greatness…and sucker punches. Jay Bruce was a great late round pick but it has really hurt Keith that Michael Brantley simply hasn’t been there all year.

Arthur: Arthur needed his keeper base that he traded away the top of his draft to acquire to perform, and it really hasn’t. Arthur’s relief pitching base was working early on, but he traded away his best reliever and added Starting Pitchers which has led to a lesser performing pitching staff. Looking at the power rankings for pitching, Arthur had a top half pitching staff for the first 8 weeks while his Relief Pitching heavy staff led the way. Then, as he changed strategies and added starters, his pitching stats went down.  The draft strategy was the way to go. Not too many of Arthur’s draft picks have hit, the early closers he took had the highest rates of return in Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman, and David Robertson. His best selection was a 12^th round Evan Longoria which he paired with an over-performing Robinson Cano to turn into high end keeper Manny Machado.

Dean: our reigning champ went elite starting pitching heavy at the top of the draft and it has mostly worked out. There is no doubt that his offense has suffered though. The David Ortiz draft selection in the 7^th round was one of the best picks in the draft. Ortiz and Ian Kinsler has kept Dean’s offense above water. The late round pick of Daniel Murphy has been free money for Dean. Murphy is a Floored League special with a .340+ AVG and very high walk rate with a low strike out rate. Dean has had a middling offense due to these three breakout players and no high end offensive draft production. All in all, Dean hit on more draft picks than he missed. Success.

That’s all for All Star Break Blogs. Next week we return to rankings, Monsters, and Maxes. Let the games…continue.