2017 Floored Draft Recap!

It was another great day in Floored history as we had everyone accounted for in one way or another. Chicago, Cleveland, Atlanta, Nashville, and Jupiter…all in one place. I appreciate everyone taking the time to get together and have a good time. Now let’s get into it.

The draft was going fairly chalk early on until Arthur chose closer Aroldis Chapman at pick 15 overall, at least a full round, if not two earlier than he needed to be taken. So why did he do it? For one, this is the first year that Yahoo had the published league-specific ranks in the Draft Application, shown as ‘XRank.’ Relief Pitchers are going to be ranked higher in our league because they are going to post far lower Earned Runs than their starting pitcher counterparts, and in general, high level relief pitchers will have better ERAs and WHIPs than starters. So, they are ranked highly. For two….its Arthur, don’t try to overthink it.

The next, we’ll call it ‘headscratching,’ pick was Alex Bregman at pick 41 overall, by Max. Bregman was ranked around 90, so when you account for some keepers being removed, maybe he was around the 70^th or 80^th player available. Bregman is a great keeper potential you say? Well at pick 41 in the 5^th round, Bregman will need to be at least a 3^rd rounder next year to even be keeper-considerable. The weekend before the draft, Max was hanging out with Michael who was struggling with whether or not to keep Mr. Bregman in the 11^th round, never once letting on his interest. I’m not sure whether to feel misled, confused, or entertained by Max taking him above names like Jacob DeGrom, a bunch of good closers, and some good hitters.

The other story line I took away was Starting Pitching. It was clear that the new 30 innings pitched minimum was on everyone’s mind, but it didn’t have the effect I was expecting. The last few years we have drafted between 51 and 53 Starting Pitchers (I went back and checked), this year, 45; a fairly significant jump down. This tells me that everyone was more aware of trying to hit that minimum right on the number, in other words not drafting too many SP. The only one who really changed their overall strategy though, unsurprisingly, was Dean. Dean has played with a number of different strategies on draft day relative to SP: one year he didn’t draft a single one (merely keeping SP Shelby Miller) and other more recent years he has gone for 2 to 3 elite starting pitchers at the top of the draft followed by high end closers. This year, Dean once again took his elite closers in the top half of the draft, but he didn’t take a starting pitcher until round 17. It is Dean’s opinion that this 30 innings pitched minimum decreases high level starting pitching value…so we shall see.

Let’s go team by team

Max, My Story is Over: well, for one, it’s a new year, Max. Trevor Story is healthy; let’s find a more appropriate team name. Max had a fairly balanced draft, relative to the timing of when he took his pitchers and hitters. His most notable picks after the aforementioned Bregman actually came at the very end. Max took two setup men from the Giants and Cubs as relief pitchers. So either he was reading my blog very carefully a few months ago, he thinks Mark Melancon or Wade Davis are going to lose their jobs, or he didn’t know those guys weren’t closers. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and say…good picks Max.

Brian and Josh…well, Brian did the drafting: Alternative Stats: I liked a number of the picks Brian made here, Jacob deGrom was one of the guys I was targeting, with Brian getting him in the 5^th round a few picks before me. He also picked up a few Floored specialists (this means the player is productive in the Hits, Walks, and or hitting Strikeouts categories) in Jose Ramirez and Odubel Herrera. On the other hand though he also took some guys not as highly projected in our league such as Edwin Encarnacion and Todd Frazier at the top half of the draft. Brian took a chance on breakout candidates Byron Buxton and Yoan Moncada, but after already keeping Andrew Benintendi, is there too much risk in doing so? Time will tell.

Matt, China Basin Bombers: so we’re sticking with this name, huh? Matt started from the 3 spot and took the leap with Clayton Kershaw…so he’s already off to a good start. From there, Matt chose a number of high home run, low batting average guys that aren’t going to play as well in our league: Giancarlo Stanton, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Evan Gattis. No surprise, Matt left the draft room projected first in the HR category by a large margin: most of the league is between 290 and 300 HRs, Matt is projected at 374. The problem is that is near the bottom in projected Hits and far behind in Average projected. Matt will be in a good spot to trade away some power if he wants to in the next few months.

Michael, Pic’em Pelham’ed: Michael was hoping that Altuve or Kershaw would fall to him at pick 4, but it was not to be. Michael will be hoping Paul Goldschmidt and his 20 Stolen Bases keep up this year. Michael’s notable draft picks were how he handled relief pitching. He is punting saves. Michael’s lone full time closer is Edwin Diaz and his 14 Strikeouts per 9 innings rate (K/9). After that, Michael filled his pitching staff with other cheap high K/9 relievers: Cam Bedrosian and Addison Reed. Trying to learn the lessons of bad closers from years passed, it will be interesting to see if it pays off this year.

Keith, Bourbon Street Blues: Keith also waited awhile to grab his first Starting Pitcher, waiting until round 8 to take Rick Porcello to follow his Kyle Hendricks keeper. Justin Upton in the 10^th round was one of the better values I saw in the draft. Upton, basically putting up the same numbers every year by year’s end (note he is incredibly streaky so the bad times are pretty bad), was a 2^nd round pick last year and is normally a high round draft pick.

Arthur, American Brawler: Arthur focused on pitching for 4 of his first 5 picks, 2 RP and 2 SP. Arthur definitely had the highest number of reach picks though. After Aroldis Chapman at 15, Arthur took Billy Hamilton at pick 54. Here is why that’s a reach, Billy Hamilton is a one-category performer, in our league, that is only 1/14^th of the game (since we have 14 categories). Stolen Base guys like Hamilton, Dee Gordon, Jarrod Dyson, Starling Marte, Jose Peraza (who Arthur took in the 14^th round), Mallex Smith etc are simply less valuable. Other notable grabs by Arthur were Dustin Pedroia at pick 55. I actually love this pick, Pedroia is the opposite of Hamilton: great in Hits, Walks, Average. He is a Floored Star. I had been targeting Pedroia but more like in the 8^th round. It’s a reach, but it’s a good reach.

Paul, South Florida Gators: Paul notably took Floored Star, on base plus slugging percentage performer Matt Carpenter in the 3^rd round. After that he had a balanced draft that ended up including a couple of guys he didn’t realize what their roles were. Paul took Dellin Betances in the 8^th round and Shawn Kelley in the 15^th, both of these guys are setup men right now and Paul didn’t realize it. OK fine, when  he drafted Shawn Kelley it was expected he’d become the Nationals closer…but it didn’t pan out. Sorry Pops. The back half of his draft is filled with familiar names with high ranges of outcomes. Can Jake Lamb learn how to hit left handed pitching? Can Ender Inciarte keep up a .330 Batting Average Balls in Play? Can Jason Kipnis get healthy?

Dean, Ortiz Don’t Retire: seriously, did anyone actually think about updating their team names before the year? Dean sniped Freddie Freeman from me at pick 13. I was planning on him being available AT LEAST to pick 15. Dean took the leap on Buster Posey at 24 who has settle into a bit of Floored Star of his own, being so good with batting average, walks, and with the number of games played you get out of him from the catcher position. After that, Dean also made a risky pick with the injured JD Martinez at 48, it’s a good value, but its also an injury that could linger. Dean paid a high price for setup man Andrew Miller in the 10^th round, but given the Floored categories and rankings, its not a bad pick at all. As always, Dean filled his roster with on base percentage masters like Anthony Rendon, Ben Zobrist, Melky Cabrera, and Nick Markakis. These names aren’t sexy but Dean is projected to win the hitting strikeouts category handily and be right at the top in walks.

Cory, Hebrew Nationals: Cory got Miguel Cabrera at 9 overall, this was farther than I thought he’d fall, an understated value we’ll say. Cory was also all up on the on base percentage monsters, whether he intended to or not, snatching up Adrian Beltre, Ian Kinsler, and Carlos Santanta all at the top of the draft. Cory’s pitching has a lot of upside but a good bit of injury and performance risk. Carlos Carrasco didn’t get a full spring training in with injury and Craig Kimbrel has been declining for a few years if you look at his peripheral numbers; but Julio Teheran was a great value in the 10^th round (and had a great opening day…Go Braves) and Julio Urias very late was a great upside pick as well.

Dave, I Hate Fantasy: Dave also drafted valuing pitching heavily with the new 30 Innings Pitched minimum, taking 3 pitchers with his first 3 picks, in addition to keeping Yu Darvish. Dave made another good reach for DJ Lemahieu at pick 50. DJ was ranked in the upper 90s, but is higher valued in Floored because he hits for such a high average, can take a walk, and doesn’t strike out much, but dang…50? Gregory Polanco in the 10^th round is a great value here, a post…post hype sleeper. The pick I’m most jealous of is Josh Bell in the 19^th round, but I don’t expect Dave to hold him long. Josh Bell may lead the league in hitting strikeout rate…in a good way, while having one of the best walk rates of the second half of the draft…all things I didn’t realize Dave cared about. I’m surprised Dean didn’t get to him first. I simply forgot to seek Bell out. Not too many flashy picks here, lot of risk and upside in the second half of the draft: Michael Brantley, Addison Russell, Nomar Mazara, Ryon Healy, Carlos Rodon. Any or all of these guys could be free agents by April’s end.

Let the games begin! Come next week, the Monsters and Max of the offseason and draft, and our first week recap!