Week 1: Well, that was different

 

Dean and Jessie went to Augusta National this month. The stories told were: the flowers were beautiful and everyone was smoking

2022 Year to Date Power Ranks
TOTAL			HITTING			PITCHING				Manager	Team
1	Brian/Josh	3.43	1	Dean	3.75	1	Brian/Josh	2.67		Michael	G and RE
2	Carl	3.57	2	Carl	3.88	2	Carl	3.17		Dave	I Hate Fantasy
3	Dean	3.86	3	Brian/Josh	4.00	3	Dave	3.50		Keith	Bourbon Street Blues
4	Dave	5.14	4	Max	5.13	4	Cory	3.83		Dean	Benchwarmers
5	Arthur	5.29	5	Michael	5.38	5	Dean	4.00		Arthur	[ALL CAPS TEAM]
6	Paul	5.43	6	Paul	5.38	6	Arthur	4.00		Carl	Boston Running Sox
7	Cory	5.57	7	Keith	6.25	7	Paul	5.50		Cory	Hebrew Nationals
8	Michael	6.36	8	Arthur	6.25	8	Keith	7.50		Max	Pancake Nips
9	Max	6.71	9	Dave	6.38	9	Michael	7.67		Paul	2nd Act
10	Keith	6.79	10	Cory	6.88	10	Max	8.83		BJ	Smoak That Ish

The first week back after a set of major rule changes was always going to require a learning curve. The first real week of baseball after a shortened spring training was always going to require a learning curve. The first week of the fantasy season was always going to require a learning curve….but I digress.

We have a new team at the top of the power ranks this year as Brian and Josh have risen from their BJ cellar to lead their first power rank year to date week standing since week 4 of 2020. It was an off year for BJ in 2021, but they have coming out guns blazing in 2022. Their Nolan Arenado and Matt Olson are ranked in the top 10 right now while they have three top 50 ranked pitchers: Rodon, Cease, and Musgrove. This is before their Ronald Acuna has even taken a professional at bat in 2022.

Only slightly behind their hot start is Carl who has four top 50 players of his own including one that he picked up right before opening day, assumingly just to get a streamed start that had some upside in Tylor Megill.

The final top tier team through one week is Dean. Dean had the misfortune of playing Carl the first week and came up on the wrong side of the close categories, but he has plenty to be happy about with where his team sits. He has three top ten ranked players and three more in the top 50. Arbitrary end points, but it gives you an idea of the hot starts these teams are off too.

Unfortunately, being in a top tier through one week hasn’t led to a direct correlation of end of year power rank success. In 2021, a top three team tier after week 1 only had one of those teams end in the top three; (ignoring 2020 because it was only two months); in 2019, again only one team from the first week top three ended the year there; 2018 didn’t have a top tier after one week; in 2017 there was again no consistency…you get the idea. The one-month mark is a must stronger indication of early success leading to staying power, let’s check out the hot starts then.

Now, let’s talk about the league landscape. The impact of the rule changes was clearly apparent in weekly matchup management and team roster construction:

• There were far fewer pitcher streams last week, and those that did (namely, Michael) largely paid a price for doing so (very few IP, K and -3 NW). We know there are going to be breakout pitchers from the non drafted playing pool (Tylor Megill, maybe?); so we can’t give up on the unowned pitchers, but it is going to require a deft hand to find the right ones. Starting Pitching, in general, was a mess the first 10 days, it will be interesting to see if starting pitchers getting lit up and pulled early is about the shortened spring training or if more teams are adapting the analytical advantage or not having pitchers face lineups a third time.
• Speaking of those starting pitchers, the Net Wins category was a rough one. League wide, our league total NW was -9. Among the top 25 preseason ranked SPs, their NW total was…0. A net win has been gold this year. We will need to find them any way we can: relief pitching, piggyback pitching, wherever. To further this point, as a league we had 28 quality starts in the week 1 10-day period. In 2021 week 1 we had 54 quality starts. This could be the shortened spring training, or it could be MLB teams being more aggressive in getting their pitchers out before it’s too late…likely it’s both of these things.
• As far as roster construction goes, the book is still out here. I was texting with Carl during the week, trying to see if he had any update perspective on the changes. He and I have some disagreements about the value of various types of bench players. Without spilling any of his trade secrets, time will tell if my theory that most bench bats are useless plays out. This is a good topic for a future blog when we have more data about the value of ABs and IPs vs ratios and productivity.

That feels like enough for the first week. I hope everyone had some fun this week and that it only gets better as we get into it. Let’s Rock.