Week 11: The Haves and Have Nots of Pitching

 

Carl and his wife, Jessica, looking festive lately. I do recognize that smile from Dean’s fraternity portrait.

2022 Year to Date Power Ranks
TOTAL			HITTING			PITCHING
1	Dean	3.36	1	Cory	3.38	1	Dean	3.00
2	Arthur	4.21	2	Arthur	3.50	2	Michael	3.33
3	Michael	4.50	3	Dean	3.63	3	Carl	3.67
4	Carl	4.57	4	Carl	5.25	4	Brian/Josh	4.33
5	Cory	4.93	5	Michael	5.38	5	Arthur	5.17
6	Dave	5.50	6	Dave	5.63	6	Dave	5.33
7	Brian/Josh	5.71	7	Keith	6.50	7	Paul	5.50
8	Paul	6.79	8	Max	6.63	8	Cory	7.00
9	Keith	6.86	9	Brian/Josh	6.75	9	Keith	7.33
10	Max	7.79	10	Paul	7.75	10	Max	9.33

Dean pulled further away from the pack this week though it was more about the pack pulling back than Dean moving forward. Dean, Arthur, and Carl, the top 3 power ranked teams before this week, all had a tough week showing some vulnerability as the calendar is about to turn to July. Sustained power rank success is very difficult. Think, Dave in 2016 or Michael in 2021, right around now the pack tends to tighten and it’s how well the top teams adjust that tends to correlate with end of year success. Neither Dave nor Michael won the league championship the year they got off to their blistering starts. Dean has been on a more standard trajectory to get to this point: even keeled first two months followed by huge June, but he will still need to be aggressive down the stretch to keep momentum into September.

The one observation I have this week is the gap between the haves and the have nots in pitching. The contending teams have been able to piece together pitching whereas the laggards have not been able to do so (other than Cory who has a great team but iffy pitching). With our rule changes this year, whiffing on pitching in the draft or earlier in the season has had larger implications for year-long success since the free agent pool is far thinner. The replacement value of hitters on the free agent wire is far deeper, opening up opportunities if teams wanted to part with a higher end hitter to trade for a better pitcher, there is a chance to replace those lost hitting stats on the free agent wire.

Time is short this week but one day soon I plan to talk about rolling expected wOBA charts on Baseball Savant and how they can be used to project hot and cold streaks with example names like Rhys Hoskins and Max Kepler, but until I have time for that one, let’s talk matchups real quick.

Brian and Josh took down Arthur after what has become a tough two week stretch for Arthur. Team BJ didn’t show out this week but pitched just well enough to outlast Arthur in this one. BJ sits at the bottom end of the competitive 7 team group at the top of the power ranks but have showed the flashes this year that they can be competitive week in and week out. Arthur, of course, is still right in it and will need to weather this cold stretch to be ready for the next challenge.

Cory and Michael’s matchup was one of two matchups between two teams that actually gained ground in the power ranks this week. Both teams played well with Cory pitching a little bit better and Michael hitting a little bit better with this one ending in a tie.

Dean may have stubbed his toe this week, but he still had enough to beat Paul who may have one eye on the keeper trading deadline or next year’s draft as the injuries and poor performances have just been too hard to overcome.

Carl beat Keith with a good pitching week and enough offense to sneak past a hot hitting team. Carl’s early season success has stalled, but he is still right in the thick of it and is the prototype for what aggressive managing looks like.

Burying the lede, Max beat Dave! This one completely flew past my radar and I’m sure Dave is handling it very well, but with 20 fewer Plate Appearances and 30 fewer innings and 5 guys on the Injured List with only one guy on an Injured List roster spot (who is actually healthy), Max still pulled the upset. Dave had been slow playing his team injuries, resting on the laurels of his win/loss record, and to that point, he even sits in first place in the yahoo standings right now, but this loss and the new loss of Bryce Harper, is sure to rock team Munguia. Congratulations to Max on the big win and a jump in the Power Ranks.