2023 Draft: Projections, Injury Discounts, and Shooting Your Shot

 

Paul visited Atlanta recently and he and Michael played some golf. Michael hasn't beaten Paul at golf in close to a calendar year

The draft is in the books! With only minor technical difficulties and one wi-fi dropping out, all were able to attend in some form or another (rumors are that one person made at least one draft pick from the…facilities…at their baby’s baptism). Let’s talk about what happened.

First of all, we begin where all my pre-draft fantasy baseball analysis begins, PROJECTIONS! A reminder for what projections are: they are the most statistically likely outcome for a player based on their performance history, normal aging curves, ballpark track record, and projected Plate Appearances and Innings Pitched based on team context. They are not gospel. They are the best thing we have to take a wholistic view of what our teams are generically going to look like. Note that I included the stats of every pitcher taken (because we can swap pitchers out on off days) and all starting hitters plus the first two drafted bench hitters. And this year, our projected winner is…PAUL!

Team	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K	AVG	SLG
Dean	6671.2	969.3	221.5	871.4	135.4	603	1088	0.2741	0.4398
Michael	6883.9	994	294.3	963.1	186.1	649.9	1623	0.2523	0.4435
Arthur	6691.9	947.4	247.4	898.5	165	569.2	1442	0.2628	0.4392
Carl	6865.5	1024.5	291	994.2	135.2	685.5	1273	0.2638	0.4546
Keith	6705.3	935.3	276	939.5	84.5	569.1	1417	0.2601	0.4472
Brian/Josh	6661.8	940.1	275.4	923.1	129.8	501.8	1418	0.2613	0.4476
Cory	6809.5	976.6	274.9	962.7	119.9	618.7	1327	0.2644	0.4484
Dave	6745.5	960.5	282.7	954.2	83.3	665.6	1361	0.2615	0.4525
Paul	6818.6	989.9	325	992.1	102.1	650.3	1661	0.2516	0.4579
Max	7056.2	1001.4	260.9	973.9	190.9	557.7	1446	0.2684	0.4481

Team	IP	QS	NW	SVH	K	ERA	WHIP
Dean	2112	90.5	17.4	48.4	2058	3.755	1.196
Michael	2009	80	11	85	2135	3.755	1.203
Arthur	1557	59.5	8.2	115	1616	3.829	1.236
Carl	1449	56.5	4.1	83.3	1432	3.745	1.190
Keith	1456	52.5	9	126.3	1552	3.690	1.207
Brian/Josh	1873	78	9.3	81.7	1998	3.825	1.225
Cory	1802	66.5	8.7	114.4	1678	3.835	1.221
Dave	1430	57.5	13	80.6	1514	3.847	1.189
Paul	2090	85.5	16	111.7	2136	3.687	1.206
Max	1247	45	4.9	118.7	1301	3.761	1.216

 

Projected Standings, higher numbers better
	R	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K	AVG	SLG		QS	NW	SVH	K	ERA	WHIP	SUM
Dean	5	1	1	7	5	10	10	2		10	10	1	8	7	8	85
Michael	8	9	7	9	7	2	2	3		8	7	5	9	6	7	89
Arthur	3	2	2	8	4	4	6	1		5	3	8	5	3	1	55
Carl	10	8	10	6	10	9	7	9		3	1	4	2	8	9	96
Keith	1	6	4	2	3	6	3	4		2	5	10	4	9	5	64
Brian/Josh	2	5	3	5	1	5	4	5		7	6	3	7	4	2	59
Cory	6	4	6	4	6	8	8	7		6	4	7	6	2	3	77
Dave	4	7	5	1	9	7	5	8		4	8	2	3	1	10	74
Paul	7	10	9	3	8	1	1	10		9	9	6	10	10	6	99
Max	9	3	8	10	2	3	9	6		1	2	9	1	5	4	72

 

What you see here is that Paul hit pitching hard, and it worked. Teams that walk away from the draft table with more pitchers are adding more value to their teams because we are able to pitch almost every inning from every player on our active roster. That third through fifth bench bat that is on your team is going to get very little use, unless you are stashing someone to be good at a later date, which is defendable, of course. For perspective, last year, the league had 65,555 Plate Appearances, I have shown here 67,909 Plate Appearances. Note that we don’t all take advantage of the ability to set daily lineups, so the maximum number of PAs one on team last year was 6,851, whereas I’m projecting our max team PAs to be just over 7,000; so, these numbers should be a good representation. 1.5 to 2.0 hitting bench spots is all we are really able to utilize via day to day transactions to maximize weekly plate appearances.

Paul’s hitting strategy appeared to focus on SLG, and it paid off for him with a high HR and RBI projection. Meanwhile Dean focused on AVG and hitters that don’t strike out, which did not lead to a good HR or RBI projection and a lower overall offensive projection.

Dean, Michael, and Paul all walked away with over 2000 IP projected, and it’s not a coincidence that this gives them a huge leg up in all the counting (non-ratio or bullpen) categories. Pitching is the area where historically there was room for addition after the draft, because of the value of streamed starting pitching. But now? With our bigger roster sizes and lack of streamed pitching, we’ve drafted almost all the innings we’re going to throw, even if the names will change plenty between now and the end of the year. Last year we threw 16,959 innings. We drafted 17,026 innings yesterday.

Shooting your Shot

This March has seen extensive upwards and downwards movement for a lot of players between unexpected rookies that are going to make Opening Day Rosters like Anthony Volpe and Jordan Walker and then veterans who have gotten hurt that might be good keepers next year like Jose Altuve, Carlos Rodon, Tyler Glasnow, and Bryce Harper. Everyone had a different price point for when they thought it was a good time to jump at the opportunities, we’ll see this time next year who was right.

The MLB season kicks off on Thursday. Get your lineups set and let’s have us a year!