2024 Draft Recap, Max is projected WHERE?!?

 

This offseason: Josh, 2023-league-champion Paul, and Michael took in a beach day in south Florida. Michael was trying out a ‘beard,’ it didn’t work.

The draft is in the books!

We had two teams autodrafting (Max and BJ), we had a newcomer (Robert), and we had a sweaty little league coach (he-who-shall-not-be-named) that “cleverly” traded away his first round draft pick that he knew he…didn’t need…right?

Let’s talk about it.

In the Yahoo draft room when the Standings are viewed, they count all the stats from all the players. That means those 8 bench hitters that Max and BJ have, those counted for them for the positive, inflating their score.

Here is what Yahoo showed: (note that Yahoo didn’t even try to estimate Net Wins…maybe they’ve read the blog) 

Manager	Team
Max	did i win yet?
Arthur	2022 TRUE YEAR
Brian/Josh	This Bud‘s For You
Dave	I Hate Fantasy
Keith	Bourbon Street Blues
Robert	Braves Bombers
Paul	2nd Act
Dean	Fighting Royce Lewis
Cory	Hebrew Nationals
Michael	Still Overdue

Team	R	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K	AVG	SLG
did i win yet?	1534	421.8	1449	288.3	961.8	2342	0.269	0.462
2022 TRUE YEAR	1159	373.4	1145	178.1	911.3	1824	0.267	0.482
This Bud‘s For You	1484	393.8	1419	287	935.1	2471	0.270	0.453
I Hate Fantasy	1070	286.8	973.3	133	785.7	1473	0.281	0.475
Bourbon Street Blues	1240	351.1	1216	200.9	753.6	1910	0.273	0.463
Braves Bombers	1364	393.5	1266	165.7	1016	2073	0.267	0.467
2nd Act	1181	370	1204	123.7	858.6	2038	0.262	0.464
Fighting Royce Lewis	1137	365.2	1101	188.4	810.2	2097	0.259	0.477
Hebrew Nationals	1211	362.5	1155	258.2	762.3	1872	0.264	0.461
Still Overdue	908.2	320.9	966.2	55.4	704.9	1786	0.250	0.459

Team	K	ERA	WHIP	QS	SV+H	NW	Total
did i win yet?	1115	3.32	1.14	45	178.4	0	98.5
2022 TRUE YEAR	1795	3.49	1.14	111.3	148.9	0	89
This Bud‘s For You	1317	3.61	1.14	57.2	155	0	86.5
I Hate Fantasy	2071	3.39	1.16	145.3	97.6	0	80.5
Bourbon Street Blues	1593	3.33	1.15	108.5	120.7	0	78.5
Braves Bombers	1626	3.77	1.18	86.6	110	0	73.5
2nd Act	1779	3.47	1.21	112.7	154	0	71.5
Fighting Royce Lewis	1960	3.67	1.17	118	121	0	71
Hebrew Nationals	1904	3.72	1.18	111.1	154.8	0	71
Still Overdue	2381	3.73	1.17	132.4	81.4	0	50

 

Whereas, this is what the fangraphs consensus projections would show for everyone’s starting and first two bench hitters and first 13 pitchers drafted

Team	R	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K	SLG	AVG
Cory	1001	311	989	248	536	1346	0.464	0.262
Arthur	1012	311	1016	149	654	1308	0.464	0.260
Max	1061	319	1054	215	571	1321	0.462	0.263
Dean	1003	323	1003	170	588	1485	0.463	0.254
Keith	983	281	979	150	485	1155	0.453	0.265
Robert	1015	296	1018	110	578	1140	0.462	0.267
Michael	1033	329	1037	69	539	1317	0.459	0.253
Paul	1024	307	1024	109	583	1344	0.460	0.261
BJ	1025	286	1025	199	534	1337	0.455	0.269
Dave	966	276	950	117	605	1190	0.463	0.269
Team	NW	QS	SVH	K	ERA	WHIP
Cory	7	139	132	1892	3.98	1.24
Arthur	13	118	82	1696	4.06	1.23
Max	13	64	161	1154	3.79	1.23
Dean	24	147	82	1800	3.92	1.21
Keith	9	122	88	1558	3.97	1.24
Robert	5	103	105	1579	4.02	1.24
Michael	27	156	61	1884	3.86	1.21
Paul	17	142	145	1886	3.91	1.26
BJ	16	69	122	1240	3.81	1.20
Dave	15	158	54	2034	3.90	1.24

Team	Total
Cory	73
Arthur	73
Max	92
Dean	82
Keith	53
Robert	70
Michael	88
Paul	78
BJ	81
Dave	80

I’ll point your eyes to a few things:

·         Offense

o   Max, BJ, and Robert all drafted way more hitters than they will be able to use during the season. This is fine, of course, if you’re trying to take extra hitting lottery tickets, it just comes at the cost of pitching volume which we’ve seen in recent years to be extremely valuable (more on this later) and you end up with a lot of wasted at bats on the bench on everyday that isn’t Monday and Thursday.

o   Normalizing for only 13 hitters, Michael jumps up from last place to second place.

o   Cory really leaned in on stolen bases and has 13% more stolen bases than the second highest projected total, he likely will be able to drop or trade some speed. At least one team (Michael) really doesn’t have any. Stolen bases can be one of the noisier stats, year over year, with significant fluctuation, but Michael is behind the 8-ball on this one.

o   Dean has completely abandoned his perch as king of hitter K avoidance, as has been his brand since Dean figured out how to Billy Beane the Floored league. Dean now has the highest projected strikeout total and it’s not particularly close.

o   Yahoo really liked Dave’s avg, but not his volume. I’d take the under on a .280 AVG since no one has hit for this high of an AVG since we replaced Hits with SLG as a hitting scoring category back in 2018. Conversely the fangraphs projections have him notably behind the pack in at bats (6427 ABs projected vs a league average of 6687 ABs)

·         Pitching

o   The autodrafters are really going to be hurting for keeping up in quality innings pitched early in the season (before injuries and breakouts happen), BUT fangraphs’ projections really do like the pitchers that Max did end up with and the scoring system didn’t punish him too hard for his lack of volume. Max is projected to lead the league in ERA but be dead last in Quality Starts and pitching strikeouts.

o   Saves: closers weren’t too highly valued this year, but this league hit them hard in the middle to late rounds, drafting a projected 1032 SaveHolds, this would be about on par with the last few years, but some teams REALLY leaned in with Cory, Robert, and Paul drafting 5 Relief Pitchers and Arthur drafting 6. While we have enough pitching slots to throw 5 RPs, with as many starters as we throw these days it’s hard to find room for all those bullpen arms. Fangraphs liked the work Max is doing more with his 5 RPs leading to over 160 projected SVH, that number would lead the league each of the years since that has been a category in Floored.

o   Speaking of that Pitching volume, Max is projected for just enough Net Wins to offset his detraction in QS and K to earn enough pitching points…to be the project winner of Floored. Autodraft, amirite?

·         So, how reliable is this projection? Well, the 7000 At Bats Max is projected for would beat the best at bat totals in the league by close to 1000 ABs, so maybe I should only be including one bench bat instead of two in the calculations. Counting only everyone’s first bench drafted hitter, Max falls down into a tie with Michael and BJ and Dave jump up to right behind them. Will the standings end up this way? Well, the draft matters a lot, more now than it used to with 30 rounds compared to where we were a few years ago. I'll just note that last year the top three projected teams (using the fangraphs numbers and my methodology) were Paul, Carl, and Michael....and the end of season standings finished that way. That's right, Max, dont blow it.

·         What will change between the draft and the end of the season? Well for one, let’s get to opening day. There were a ton of injured pitchers drafted, so teams have a lot of room to change how their team looks between now and Thursday. Michael and Dave need to add some SVH, Michael needs to find some Stolen Bases, Max and BJ need to find some innings, and Keith needs to find some power.

·         The picks that made you go ooh:

o   Luis Castillo at pick 8 by Paul made me do a double take, passing on Kyle Tucker and Corbin Burnes was a bold choice. I was hoping to take Castillo at 14 but he might not have made it that far anyway.

o   Yamamoto going at 24 for Dean above names like Logan Webb, Aaron Nola, and Kevin Gausman will give people plenty to check back in on all year. Let alone what Yamamoto did in Korea last week.

o   Evan Carter at pick 39 by Arthur was a wow. He could have traded Michael for Carter very cheap in the offseason and kept Carter in the 11^th round. Arthur’s selection of Walker Buehler at pick 54 also probably jumped Walker’s ADP by 100 picks.

o   Michael reached a bit for a few pitchers, Chris Sale at 41 and Reynaldo Lopez at 194 probably raised a few eyebrows, but his pick of Injured-and-likely-only-throwing-100-innings-this-year Gerrit Cole was as much a play for next year’s keeper picks as it was at a second half run this year

o   Keith getting Tanner Bibee at 45 was a good snag. Bibee is a popular name right now and Keith needed to jump him to get him

o   We all let Dean get a nice value out of O’neil Cruz at pick 64, I expected him to go a lot higher and got distracted at my pick before this.

o   Dave jumping for the #1 prospect Wyatt Langford at pick 82 was just in time for when he needed to go, lot of risk with this pick but there’s 3 year keeper upside too.

o   Paul taking Dansby Swanson right after the keeper rounds was a nice grab, he projects very well and I missed out on him in the middle of three keeper rounds and two traded away pick rounds.

o   Robert getting Milwaukee’s top prospect Jackson Chourio in the 13^th round could pay some long term dividends. He also projects well and is only likely to get better next year.

o   Dave sniped Bailey Ober from me while I was in my keeper/traded pick doldrum. Ober has had a great spring and is looking to be a breakout pitcher this year.

o   Speaking of projected well. Cory’s Andres Gimenez in the 14^th is going to be a very sold base for him all year, Esteury Ruiz in the 17^th though is likely to be excess stolen bases without much oompf behind it given the rest of Cory’s team’s speed.

o   Paul getting Jonathan India in the 18^th round after all the Reds’ injuries this spring is going to pay dividends for Paul early in the season.

o   The injured pitchers really came fast in the back third of the draft: Bradish, Means, Verlander, Scherzer, Degrom just to name a few. Vastly different time tables and expectations for these pitchers. Whichever manager navigates the precious IL spots correctly will have a leg-up in the field. We’re watching you, Dean.

OK that’s enough, probably too much. It’s going to be a great year. Looking forward to it, as always. Remember, this first matchup period is a 11-day week and we only have 8 ‘moves’ to cover that whole time. League precedent is we keep it that way but I’m open to re-setting the moves after Sunday if we can agree before Thursday.