New Year, New Blog: Draft Day Recap!
It’s a blog on my birthday so of course the photo had to be about
me…Pops and I got in a rainy round at Eastpoint a few weeks ago. I give him too
many strokes these days and he almost always beats me.
Another Draft is in the Books!
After what turned into a tumultuous (for yours truly, at
least) keeper and draft pick trading season, it was great to finally hit the
Draft Now button and get some real players on our teams. Rookies were reached
for. Injured players fell down the board. Some picks made me laugh. In the end
we’re all set up for a fun season.
Let’s get into the details. Speaking of keeper and draft
pick trading. We did not enter this draft on equal footing. Each of the
elements that make up what our value entering the draft room could get a whole
blog (and keeper value did), but for the sake of getting to the point, here is
the summary of how the values stacked up:
|
Manager |
Value
of picks before offseason keeper and draft pick trading |
Value
of picks after trading season |
Value of Keepers |
Total
Team Value (keeper value plus pick value) entering the draft |
|
Michael |
$ 303.91 |
$ 339.87 |
$ 25.01 |
$ 364.89 |
|
Cory |
$ 282.08 |
$ 295.33 |
$ 59.28 |
$ 354.61 |
|
Kevin |
$ 283.74 |
$ 292.99 |
$ 20.57 |
$ 313.56 |
|
Robert |
$ 330.76 |
$ 328.28 |
$ 20.03 |
$ 348.31 |
|
Arthur |
$ 371.50 |
$ 323.18 |
$ 8.78 |
$ 331.96 |
|
Max |
$ 349.88 |
$ 344.59 |
$ 5.02 |
$ 349.60 |
|
Dave |
$ 270.57 |
$ 294.53 |
$ 18.67 |
$ 313.19 |
|
Keith |
$ 182.59 |
$ 179.76 |
$ (11.79) |
$ 167.97 |
|
Paul |
$ 179.06 |
$ 169.67 |
$ 2.12 |
$ 171.79 |
|
Dean |
$ 266.70 |
$ 271.42 |
$ 40.30 |
$ 311.72 |
Michael gained the most ground from all of the keeper and
draft pick trading. He sold two keepers, bought one, and flip-flopped a lot of
picks to help people fill rounds where they needed to keep a player. Don’t ask
me more detail than that because I’m tired of looking at it.
Dave was the second biggest trade-value-gainer, mostly due
to the sale of James Wood who elicited a bidding war and a ‘last and final’
offer from Arthur that won the bidding war but cost Arthur a good bit of draft
capital
Arthur lost most of his draft capital edge that he built up
over the course of 2025. Arthur bought two keepers and moved up from pick 4 overall
to pick 2 overall to be able to draft Aaron Judge. So all was not lost.
Cory was the king of keepers headlined by Tarik Skubal and
Paul Skenes. That in addition to selling a keeper set Cory up very well for
draft day. He executed it well.
Keith may have been better off NOT having any keepers with
the numbers saying him keeping Lawrence Butler in the 4th round did more harm
than good; but in the end it didn’t matter a whole lot for him and Paul as they
started the offseason the far-and-away bottom two team values and ended up the
offseason there as well.
So how did it go? Well here is what Yahoo said in the Draft
Room. Remember Yahoo counts all stats from every player you drafted including
that 18th or more hitter that our 13 starting person roster likely
won’t be able to make use of.
|
Team |
R |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
BB |
K |
AVG |
SLG |
K |
ERA |
WHIP |
QS |
SV+H |
NW |
Total |
|
Hebrew Nationals |
1325 |
383.8 |
1278 |
231.9 |
904.6 |
2226.6 |
0.255 |
0.438 |
1695.7 |
3.49 |
1.14 |
101.4 |
120.5 |
18 |
105 |
|
(Throws Up Hands) |
1267.6 |
338 |
1209.2 |
136.2 |
922.2 |
1884.7 |
0.259 |
0.431 |
2035.3 |
3.65 |
1.18 |
135 |
57.7 |
23 |
95.5 |
|
Too Many Intangibles |
1330.7 |
366.7 |
1276.3 |
222.5 |
971.3 |
1983.6 |
0.257 |
0.43 |
1426.1 |
3.64 |
1.2 |
72.8 |
97.5 |
13 |
84.5 |
|
Big Dumper Did Not Rescue |
1243 |
394.9 |
1262.7 |
192.9 |
807.4 |
2226.4 |
0.251 |
0.445 |
1650.2 |
3.72 |
1.18 |
80.8 |
147.5 |
13 |
84 |
|
The Real Current Champ |
1157.3 |
280.6 |
1089.3 |
153.9 |
728.3 |
1520.8 |
0.269 |
0.431 |
1765.5 |
3.58 |
1.18 |
101.2 |
101.9 |
15 |
80.5 |
|
MIAMI VICE |
1131.1 |
319 |
1057.5 |
241.1 |
844.6 |
2023.6 |
0.253 |
0.435 |
1454.4 |
3.61 |
1.17 |
67.3 |
163.7 |
14 |
76 |
|
Current Champ |
1213.2 |
393.3 |
1201.1 |
227.4 |
859 |
2234.3 |
0.245 |
0.443 |
1763.9 |
3.91 |
1.19 |
112 |
72 |
4 |
70 |
|
Dave Hates Fantasy |
1155.2 |
347.9 |
1083.7 |
219 |
724.3 |
2009.2 |
0.251 |
0.448 |
1971.7 |
3.97 |
1.23 |
119.2 |
104 |
7 |
69 |
|
Mariners is 4 winners |
1032.3 |
355.8 |
1111.6 |
119.4 |
691.3 |
1846.8 |
0.248 |
0.447 |
1987.8 |
4.15 |
1.24 |
130.8 |
53.9 |
1 |
56 |
|
Bourbon Street Voodoo |
1168.3 |
280.5 |
1054.7 |
251 |
767.5 |
2016.6 |
0.25 |
0.41 |
1230.7 |
3.85 |
1.23 |
62.4 |
133.9 |
6 |
49.5 |
Cory was the big winner in Yahoo’s standings. Blessing or a
curse?
When I run these numbers, I trim down the projected stats from
players to which roster spots we should be able to get use from, as well as to
be able to compare team talent as apples to apples as possible. Kevin’s 19-hitter
lineup would not be helpful to compare to Paul’s 15-hitter lineup, but everyone
else took at least 17 hitters so a number of people wanted either the extra
bench depth and/or they liked the lottery tickets at the end of the hitting
pool. This kind of analysis is not saying not to take extra players that don’t count
towards a team projection, it’s just saying that you wont be able to use their
stats very often…unless they break out and then they’ll be used plenty.
Let’s look back on last year’s similar analysis. Here was
the values exiting the draft last year:
Dean, Paul, and Keith all had a big edge on the field as
their Sum of Pick Value (exiting the draft) was well above the rest and they all
made the playoffs. Dave was the 4th playoff team who HIT on a number
of draft picks and made a few great adds during the year. So how did this year
go?
|
Manager |
Total Team Value (keeper value plus pick value) entering the
draft |
Value of team drafted |
|
Michael |
$ 364.89 |
$ 375.08 |
|
Cory |
$ 354.61 |
$ 343.05 |
|
Max |
$ 349.60 |
$ 306.19 |
|
Dean |
$ 311.72 |
$ 305.92 |
|
Robert |
$ 348.31 |
$ 297.80 |
|
Kevin |
$ 313.56 |
$ 283.82 |
|
Arthur |
$ 331.96 |
$ 273.45 |
|
Dave |
$ 313.19 |
$ 244.99 |
|
Paul |
$ 171.79 |
$ 185.87 |
|
Keith |
$ 167.97 |
$ 119.57 |
Cory and Michael are the heavy favorites going into the
year. They had a leg-up entering the draft and the projections like their
picks.
Max and Robert both had good starting value to pick with,
but a number of their picks are not projected well. Remember, I’m saying
projection. There’s WIDE variance on projections for individual players, but
when you compile projections for a full team, the overall gets pretty close.
Here is just a taste of some of those picks that projections
either loved or hated (removing keeper picks and some players who’s value is
interfered with by keepers not being taken – like a the 20th best
player being taken 12th which looks like an 8 pick overpay on paper)
|
Manager |
pick |
pick
value |
player
drafted |
projected
value |
profit
from pick at draft |
|
Mariners
is ... |
294 |
$
0.11 |
Jeremiah
Estrada |
$ 10.84 |
$ 10.73 |
|
The
Real Cur... |
268 |
$
1.15 |
Garrett
Whitlock |
$ 9.02 |
$ 7.87 |
|
Mariners
is ... |
263 |
$
1.25 |
Merrill
Kelly |
$ 9.08 |
$ 7.83 |
|
Bourbon
Stre... |
192 |
$
4.28 |
Abner
Uribe |
$ 11.73 |
$ 7.45 |
|
The
Real Cur... |
105 |
$
10.22 |
Zack
Wheeler |
$ 16.90 |
$ 6.68 |
|
Mariners
is ... |
247 |
$
1.98 |
José
Soriano |
$ 8.22 |
$ 6.24 |
|
The
Real Cur... |
248 |
$
1.93 |
Garrett
Cleavinger |
$ 8.12 |
$ 6.19 |
|
Too
Many Int... |
158 |
$
6.35 |
Jac
Caglianone |
$ - |
$ (6.35) |
|
Bourbon
Stre... |
157 |
$
6.36 |
Kazuma
Okamoto |
$ - |
$ (6.36) |
|
Big
Dumper D... |
42 |
$
19.55 |
Riley
Greene |
$ 13.11 |
$ (6.44) |
|
Current
Champ |
154 |
$
6.49 |
Munetaka
Murakami |
$ - |
$ (6.49) |
|
Dave
Hates F... |
150 |
$
6.55 |
Matt
McLain |
$ - |
$ (6.55) |
|
Hebrew
Natio... |
41 |
$
19.76 |
William
Contreras |
$ 12.88 |
$ (6.88) |
|
The
Real Cur... |
68 |
$
14.34 |
Shane
McClanahan |
$ 7.33 |
$ (7.01) |
|
MIAMI
VICE |
59 |
$
15.87 |
Shota
Imanaga |
$ 8.71 |
$ (7.16) |
|
Dave
Hates F... |
91 |
$
11.06 |
Trevor
Rogers |
$ 3.90 |
$ (7.16) |
|
Dave
Hates F... |
50 |
$
17.61 |
Kyle
Bradish |
$ 10.20 |
$ (7.41) |
|
Current
Champ |
26 |
$
22.13 |
Zach
Neto |
$ 14.56 |
$ (7.57) |
|
Too
Many Int... |
83 |
$
11.92 |
Jacob
Misiorowski |
$ 4.28 |
$ (7.64) |
|
Dave
Hates F... |
130 |
$
8.68 |
Trevor
Story |
$ 0.91 |
$ (7.77) |
|
Big
Dumper D... |
54 |
$
16.65 |
Tyler
Soderstrom |
$ 8.68 |
$ (7.96) |
|
Bourbon
Stre... |
46 |
$
18.71 |
Jarren
Duran |
$ 10.66 |
$ (8.05) |
|
The
Real Cur... |
133 |
$
8.24 |
Ivan
Herrera |
$ - |
$ (8.24) |
|
MIAMI
VICE |
132 |
$
8.42 |
Carter
Jensen |
$ - |
$
(8.42) |
|
Current
Champ |
64 |
$
14.97 |
Hunter
Goodman |
$ 6.54 |
$ (8.43) |
|
MIAMI
VICE |
124 |
$
9.08 |
Samuel
Basallo |
$ - |
$ (9.08) |
|
Dave
Hates F... |
31 |
$ 21.56
|
Austin
Riley |
$ 12.41 |
$ (9.15) |
|
MIAMI
VICE |
117 |
$
9.57 |
JJ
Wetherholt |
$ - |
$ (9.57) |
|
MIAMI
VICE |
104 |
$
10.25 |
Konnor
Griffin |
$ - |
$ (10.25) |
|
Bourbon
Stre... |
37 |
$
20.53 |
Lawrence
Butler |
$ 3.96 |
$ (16.56) |
Some of the players taken actually rated as negative value
add to one’s team, like bad catchers or rookies that might not join the majors
until June. Instead of showing those as negative value I’ve just zero’ed out
their projected value so that total team values don’t get really skewed.
As you can see, waiting on Relief Pitchers is very profitable
(Estrada, Whitlock, Uribe, Cleavinger). Replacement level RPs are basically as
good as high-end RPs but they don’t get drafted as high and Yahoo’s ranking
system also doesn’t rate high-end RPs as high with our scoring system
I’m not going to critique many of these negative profit
picks. Most of them are after pick 100 when dart throwing becomes a lot more
justifiable. The data I’ve run shows that we hold only most players drafted
inside the top 130 all year, but each manager’s vibe is going to be different.
That said, Zach Neto (ranked high in standard leagues but not in our format) at
pick 26, Trevor Story at pick 130, and missing-all-of-last-season Shane Mclanahan
at pick 68 were eyebrow raisers.
“C’mon Michael, enough with dollar values, you’ve trained me
on power ranks. Do that.” Ok fine, here you go
|
2026 Draft Projected End of Year
Power Ranks |
|||||||||||
|
TOTAL |
HITTING |
PITCHING |
|
Manager |
Team name seen in Results Page |
||||||
|
1 |
Michael |
3.71 |
1 |
Michael |
4.25 |
1 |
Dean |
2.83 |
Michael |
(Throws Up H... |
|
|
2 |
Cory |
4.14 |
2 |
Robert |
4.25 |
2 |
Michael |
3.00 |
Robert |
Big Dumper D... |
|
|
3 |
Robert |
4.57 |
3 |
Kevin |
4.50 |
3 |
Cory |
3.50 |
Keith |
Bourbon Stre... |
|
|
4 |
Dean |
4.86 |
4 |
Cory |
4.63 |
4 |
Robert |
5.00 |
Max |
Current Champ |
|
|
5 |
Kevin |
5.29 |
5 |
Max |
5.00 |
5 |
Arthur |
5.67 |
Dave |
Dave Hates F... |
|
|
6 |
Max |
5.36 |
6 |
Dave |
5.75 |
6 |
Max |
5.83 |
Cory |
Hebrew Natio... |
|
|
7 |
Arthur |
5.86 |
7 |
Arthur |
6.00 |
7 |
Kevin |
6.33 |
Paul |
Mariners is ... |
|
|
8 |
Dave |
6.07 |
8 |
Dean |
6.38 |
8 |
Dave |
6.50 |
Arthur |
MIAMI VICE |
|
|
9 |
Paul |
7.36 |
9 |
Paul |
6.75 |
9 |
Keith |
8.17 |
Dean |
The Real Cur... |
|
|
10 |
Keith |
7.79 |
10 |
Keith |
7.50 |
10 |
Paul |
8.17 |
Kevin |
Too Many Int... |
|
Again it’s Michael and Cory that
have an edge on the field here, but Robert shows well in this analysis
Paul and Keith have some work to
do this year… just to accrue some talent to worth trading away at the trade
deadline
|
Manager |
AB |
R |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
BB |
K |
SLG |
AVG |
IP |
NW |
QS |
SVH |
K |
ERA |
WHIP |
Manager |
|
|
Michael |
8259 |
1178 |
326 |
1143 |
113 |
888 |
1687 |
0.437 |
0.262 |
1965 |
24 |
178 |
56 |
2051 |
3.63 |
1.20 |
Michael |
|
|
Robert |
7824 |
1160 |
368 |
1163 |
173 |
758 |
1971 |
0.452 |
0.254 |
1529 |
17 |
111 |
144 |
1653 |
3.73 |
1.20 |
Robert |
|
|
Keith |
7685 |
1011 |
255 |
963 |
227 |
718 |
1771 |
0.415 |
0.253 |
1262 |
4 |
81 |
130 |
1237 |
3.90 |
1.25 |
Keith |
|
|
Max |
7552 |
1113 |
368 |
1116 |
200 |
807 |
1959 |
0.447 |
0.247 |
1747 |
9 |
145 |
69 |
1794 |
3.89 |
1.21 |
Max |
|
|
Dave |
7339 |
1079 |
337 |
1055 |
203 |
697 |
1873 |
0.452 |
0.253 |
1947 |
6 |
144 |
88 |
1966 |
3.96 |
1.25 |
Dave |
|
|
Cory |
8042 |
1156 |
348 |
1147 |
197 |
808 |
1896 |
0.442 |
0.256 |
1563 |
18 |
128 |
126 |
1690 |
3.55 |
1.16 |
Cory |
|
|
Paul |
7080 |
1044 |
342 |
1068 |
113 |
670 |
1728 |
0.447 |
0.249 |
1885 |
0 |
144 |
47 |
1777 |
4.09 |
1.26 |
Paul |
|
|
Arthur |
6965 |
1018 |
300 |
976 |
220 |
805 |
1772 |
0.445 |
0.257 |
1415 |
15 |
96 |
159 |
1463 |
3.70 |
1.20 |
Arthur |
|
|
Dean |
7543 |
1042 |
268 |
1022 |
142 |
671 |
1309 |
0.444 |
0.273 |
1755 |
23 |
149 |
91 |
1836 |
3.56 |
1.19 |
Dean |
|
|
Kevin |
7559 |
1096 |
324 |
1085 |
187 |
812 |
1621 |
0.444 |
0.260 |
1294 |
15 |
98 |
97 |
1395 |
3.68 |
1.23 |
Kevin |
Arthur and Paul are looking a little light in ABs. Paul due
to having one fewer hitter than everyone else in this analysis and Arthur due
to taking more lottery tickets with his picks that aren’t projected for as many
At Bats (but they WILL get at bats if they’re good)
Kevin and Keith come out looking like they’re short on
starting pitching. Kevin was forced into some autopicking with a life thing
late in the draft and it may have cost him some starting pitching.
Arthur appears to have cornered the market in SVH. Michael
and Paul will likely be picking up some RPs when the IL spots start to open up.
Dean’s strategy seems to have really valued AVG, an
interesting result in 2026 in the ‘chicks dig the longball’ era
Michael, Dave, and Paul drafted the most innings, but with
the two bench spots moved to starting hitting spots, and therefore between 15
and 20 fewer starting pitchers being owned all the time now, and therefore
there is more interesting starting pitching on the free agent wire, pitching
streaming is likely to be more valuable this year (value up or value down TBD).
Our total number of innings pitched by the end is likely to be well above this
16,326 IP drafted. Long ways to go there.
OK, that’s enough for now. Let’s wrap up with quick
reminders about rule changes and stalwarts from last year
No changes to scoring system, Net Wins is still a thing
No changes to number of moves per week* (*other than the matchup-weeks
longer than 7 days when we double those moves allowances)
HEADS UP. I just checked and Yahoo changed this for this
year. Week 1 will be a 5 game-day week instead of a Thursday to following
Sunday game week. I had bumped moves to 16 last night but I just moved this
back to 8.
Bidding Wars are now shortened and we might still be finding
loop holes we’ll close in the spirit of what we voted for
There is a PUNISHMENT if you sell off team capital during
the year and finish last in the Bourbon Street Championship. We were tired of
tanking and this is our first attempt to stem it off.
The fantasy season will end one week earlier than we have
been ending. Season ends September 20th
No more restrictions around what rounds you hold a number of
picks in
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