Week 9: Who was missing the blog?
Representing the appropriate team in the city of Angels, the Nordhielms took in game earlier this season. Yes, the photo is old according to blog standards, we’ve been due for a blog.
The power ranks took some work this week. Yahoo’s system is
messed up and their YTD stats repository is not calculating right. I had to do
more manually this week than I was doing back in 2016. Alas, here we go.
|
2026 YTD Power Ranks |
||||||||
|
TOTAL |
HITTING |
PITCHING |
||||||
|
1 |
Arthur |
3.00 |
1 |
Kevin |
2.50 |
1 |
Dean |
2.67 |
|
2 |
Kevin |
3.79 |
2 |
Arthur |
3.00 |
2 |
Arthur |
3.00 |
|
3 |
Dave |
4.43 |
3 |
Dave |
3.88 |
3 |
Dave |
5.17 |
|
4 |
Dean |
5.07 |
4 |
Max |
4.25 |
4 |
Keith |
5.17 |
|
5 |
Robert |
5.57 |
5 |
Robert |
5.50 |
5 |
Kevin |
5.50 |
|
6 |
Cory |
5.71 |
6 |
Cory |
5.63 |
6 |
Michael |
5.67 |
|
7 |
Paul |
6.21 |
7 |
Paul |
6.38 |
7 |
Robert |
5.67 |
|
8 |
Max |
6.64 |
8 |
Dean |
6.88 |
8 |
Cory |
5.83 |
|
9 |
Michael |
6.93 |
9 |
Michael |
7.88 |
9 |
Paul |
6.00 |
|
10 |
Keith |
7.29 |
10 |
Keith |
8.88 |
10 |
Max |
9.83 |
·
Kevin fell back to Earth this week after an
impressive two-week run
·
Dave and Paul popped up in the ranks
·
Robert continued a downward move since an early
peak in week 2
|
Manager |
Week's Expected Week Wins |
Week's Wins Over Expected |
YTD EWW |
YTD WOE |
4-week running EWW |
|
Michael |
5.55 |
-0.05 |
51.9 |
-0.4 |
23.2 |
|
Robert |
5.44 |
-2.94 |
66.5 |
-10.0 |
24.6 |
|
Max |
8.51 |
-0.01 |
54.8 |
2.7 |
27.0 |
|
Dave |
7.77 |
0.73 |
67.4 |
3.1 |
30.5 |
|
Cory |
7.12 |
-0.62 |
61.5 |
3.0 |
26.0 |
|
Paul |
7.60 |
3.90 |
58.6 |
12.9 |
28.3 |
|
Arthur |
7.52 |
1.98 |
76.6 |
-0.1 |
33.5 |
|
Dean |
10.79 |
2.71 |
64.3 |
-2.8 |
33.0 |
|
Kevin |
5.18 |
-0.68 |
76.4 |
-1.9 |
33.6 |
|
Keith |
4.01 |
-2.51 |
47.4 |
3.1 |
18.7 |
·
Dean posted the 4th highest EWW score
of the week and has jumped back into relevancy with a top notch 4-week running
EWW of 33.0
·
Robert lost a few more ticks on the WOE meter, not
only has his team been in a slide but Robert’s bad luck with opponents has to
hurt
· Conversely, paul added 3.9 more WOE to his total making him the runaway leader for luckiest team in the standings right now.
We’re through one turn of the schedule, meaning we’re not
only nearly halfway through with the fantasy regular season, but we have some
meaningful data with respect to how things are shaping up this year with our
rules changes compared to last year. Let’s get into it.
Average of each team's weekly totals, from the first 7-day week of the fantasy season to the equivalent of last week
|
2025: week 2-8 |
R |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
BB |
K |
AVG |
SLG |
NW |
K |
ERA |
WHIP |
QS |
SV+H |
AB |
IP |
|
|
2025 |
Weekly average |
35.6 |
9.8 |
34.7 |
6.6 |
26.5 |
60.1 |
0.255 |
0.427 |
-0.03 |
70.5 |
3.752 |
1.253 |
5.1 |
4.7 |
256.6 |
72.2 |
|
2026 |
Weekly average |
41.6 |
10.8 |
38.4 |
6.5 |
34.7 |
71.8 |
0.246 |
0.411 |
0.24 |
67.5 |
3.777 |
1.204 |
4.6 |
4.1 |
296.8 |
69.5 |
|
|
|||||||||||||||||
|
2025 |
st dev |
6.39 |
3.76 |
8.47 |
2.86 |
5.52 |
9.66 |
0.028 |
0.061 |
2.99 |
19.15 |
1.40 |
0.27 |
2.10 |
2.31 |
17.17 |
20.12 |
|
2026 |
st dev |
7.80 |
3.53 |
8.21 |
3.62 |
7.35 |
12.36 |
0.013 |
0.032 |
2.80 |
17.37 |
1.15 |
0.19 |
2.16 |
1.88 |
15.04 |
15.86 |
·
Overall is predictable:
o
hitting averages for counting stats (where more
volume equals more production) ticked up, hitting averages for rate stats ticked
down
o
pitching volume is down (with more roster
allocation for hitters)
·
despite at least one league member’s prediction,
the standard deviation of week to week at bats is down. With more starting
roster spots but without excess available bench spots, the number of at bats each
team outputs each week is largely flat. As in, when some random week of some
MLB teams getting only 5 games happens, this hasn’t inflated or deflated weekly
fantasy team volumes
· league weekly innings pitched is down notably less than league weekly at bats have gone up. This tells me that the league has been far more efficient in its roster construction than last year. As in, there are far fewer wasted roster spots. Often these are bench bats that don’t get active very often during the week at the expense of innings pitched lost. This data would say that the league rostered more hitters last year than places to put them instead of rostering pitchers that could be used, but this year, there are places for those hitters.
What has changed in the year to date cumulative by Fantasy Team
stats?
|
|
Year to Date Fantasy Team Cumulative Stats (2025 week 2 to week
8 and 2026 week 2 to week 9) |
|
|||||||||||||||
|
|
R |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
BB |
K |
AVG |
SLG |
|
K |
ERA |
WHIP |
QS |
SVH |
NW |
|
|
|
AVG
2025 |
308 |
86.3 |
299 |
56.3 |
230 |
518 |
0.252 |
0.427 |
|
604 |
3.67 |
1.22 |
41.2 |
410 |
0.9 |
|
|
|
AVG
2026 |
356 |
92.6 |
329 |
55.3 |
300 |
621 |
0.248 |
0.415 |
|
581 |
3.84 |
1.22 |
38.4 |
34.8 |
1.6 |
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||||
|
STDEV
2025 |
24.8 |
12.1 |
28.4 |
9.7 |
26.4 |
46.9 |
0.007 |
0.018 |
|
142 |
0.421 |
0.058 |
11.2 |
9.06 |
7.54 |
|
|
|
STDEV
2026 |
34.8 |
14.8 |
21.9 |
18.0 |
34.5 |
72.8 |
0.006 |
0.024 |
|
95.4 |
0.402 |
0.065 |
10.3 |
6.82 |
10.4 |
|
|
·
similar to the week to week stats, relatively
predictable uptick in hitting volume but somewhat surprising minimal downtick
in pitching volume
·
stolen bases have not gone up, despite the
additional hitters, this is consistent with the weekly data
·
ERA and WHIP have actually gotten worse, despite
the decreased volume, this would either be an MLB trend that I haven’t analyzed
or players that we’ve started this year have not performed as well as the
players we started last year.
· The standard deviation of Net Wins is funny. Wiiiiiide variance between everyone’s net win total relative to the average (mean) of the stat.
OK next up, I wanted to get some historical perspective about fast and slow starts. Evaluating players through this same first two month stretch over the last few years, how did they do through the rest of the year.
|
|
Averages across 2023, 2024, and 2025 data |
|
|
|||||
|
What % of Players had.... |
Players preseason ranked in top 100 |
Players preseason ranked between 100 and 200 |
Players preseason ranked outside top 200 |
Comment |
Notable Players for 2026 to watch (tried to find one
from each team for each label) |
|
||
|
Positive profit after week 8 |
30.0% |
33.3% |
20.8% |
if drafted in the top 200,
players are slightly more likely (30% vs 20%) to have a profit through week 8
than players drafted outside the top 200 |
Many |
|
||
|
if positive profit through week 8, EOS value remaining
within $5* of week 8 value |
30.1% |
29.4% |
26.1% |
25% to 30% chance of ending
the season within $5 of wk 8 value if players have a profit through week 8
(30% of 30% so about 10 players from the top 100, for example will maintain
their value) |
Watching for this |
|
||
|
profit greater than $5
after week 8 |
20.0% |
21.3% |
13.6% |
top 200 players are
slightly more likely than undrafted players (20% vs 13%) to keep profit of
more than $5 |
Jordan Walker, Munetaka
Murakami, Emerson Hancock, Bryce Elder, Cam Schlittler, Payton Tolle, Chase
DeLauter, Chase Burns, Drake Baldwin, Max Meyer, Chase Dollander |
|
||
|
if more than $5 positive
profit through week 8, value loss of more than $5 from week 8 to E.O.S |
50.1% |
62.9% |
68.6% |
at least 50% chance of
losing more than $5 in value if you have more than $5 in profit after week 8,
~70% if drafted outside of top 200 |
Watching for this |
|
||
|
if positive profit through
week 8, value improved from week 8 to E.O.S more than $5 |
15.6% |
8.6% |
8.2% |
low rate of increasing more
than $5 profit beyond week 8 levels, but slightly better chance (15%) if drafted in top 100 vs
chance if drafted later (8%) |
Watching for this |
|
||
|
negative profit through
week 8 |
69.0% |
65.0% |
70.1% |
high rate of draft misses
across the spectrum |
Even More than the First
Row |
|
||
|
if negative profit through
week 8, EOS value remaining within $5 of week 8 value |
27.4% |
24.4% |
23.0% |
consistent rate of
maintaining negative profit within $5 of week 8 value across all preseason
values |
Watching for this |
|
||
|
value improved from week 8
to E.O.S if negative profit through week 8 |
62.8% |
54.7% |
46.1% |
among those with negative
profit through week 8, top 100 players were more likely to regain value (62%)
compared to players ranked outside of top 100 (50%) |
Watching for this |
|
||
|
negative profit greater
than $5 after week 8 |
57.3% |
52.0% |
29.5% |
top 200 players are more
likely to have lost more than $5 of profit through week 8 (55%) compared to
only players from outside the top 200 that had less value to lose |
(trying to avoid the injured
players but this list is riddled with them) Fernando Tatis Jr., Cal Raleigh,
Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani hitter, Lawrence Butler, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.,
Steven Kwan, Kyle Tucker, Devin Williams, Andres Munoz, Julio Rodriguez |
|
||
|
if more than $5 negative
profit through week 8, value gain of more than $5 from week 8 to E.O.S |
53.5% |
44.3% |
63.4% |
the biggest value decliners
from draft day by week 8 are relatively equally likely to regain significant value
across all preseason values. This data had wide variance year to year. |
Watching for this |
|
||
- ranked ~300 to ranked ~180
- ranked ~120 to ranked ~70
- ranked ~40 to ranked ~25
- ranked ~20 to ranked ~15
Yes it’s a lot of data, I get it. This one took some homework. My biggest takeaways I’ve bolded in the above table. It’s hard for players that have been exceedingly bad to stay that bad, but some do, but it’s even harder for players that are off to a surprisingly hot start to keep it up, but some do. Most players regress to the mean of their projected value. Injuries are the wildcard for this because once a player is hurt enough to miss time, they are likely somewhat hurt even when they come back and do not perform at their normal level.
That's a wrap for this blog. Hopefully Yahoo's system is working better next week and I can think of more topics to keep writing about and we can keep the content interesting and helpful to everyone.
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