2019 Preseason Blog Series Part 4: What is a keeper worth?

Arthur and Dave did some first hand scouting at the Ballpark of the Palm Beaches recently. Arthur got a photo here with Adam Eaton while Dave is shown with the first Elite RP poster boy, Chris Devenski.

As keeper trading season has drawn to a close, there is a chasm that has opened among the league, those that make keeper trades and those that don’t. Keith was one of the first to make a high end keeper trade back in 2017 when he acquired Anthony Rizzo for a 2^nd round pick, but this year he remained content to stand pat when there were trades to be had. Meanwhile Cory, who seemingly has a keeper surplus every year lately, has become adept at earning market value for highly-desired commodities. All the while, team BJ has never completed a keeper trade in our league history.

To determine what a keeper is worth, market context is required, just like in every other aspect of fantasy sports. You love Aroldis Chapman? He can be yours in the second round, as Arthur has done in the past. He probably could have been had a round or three later. You love Christian Yelich? So does everyone else (to varying levels), he will likely be a first round pick on Saturday.

Keeper trading is all about finding value among a market with obscure values. To start we have to determine what replacement level is, so that we can determine what a player’s value over replacement level is. This year, based on Yahoo’s March 1^st rankings, our league had 49 players with at least 1 round of keeper value available to them. If you narrow that down to 3 rounds of keeper value, the pool shrinks to 30. Given that each of our 10 teams can keep 3 players, A HA! we have found what the replacement level keeper is, one with three rounds of value. If a player only has 2 rounds of keeper value, and you keep them, you are, mathematically, losing ground on the field. If you have a keeper with more than 3 rounds of value, you are gaining ground on the field with that player.

This leads us into trading. Everyone will value these rounds of value differently. Rhys Hoskins’s 5 rounds of value between his 4^th round rank vs 9^th round availability is going to be more valuable than Trevor Bauer’s 6^th round rank and 11^th round availability. BUT THEN you also have to remember the number of years of eligibility that the player has. Hoskins only had 2 years left whereas Bauer still has 3. We’ll save future value for another blog, but it needs to be noted.

Given that replacement level is approximately 3 rounds of value, how much is a team willing to spend on a player? Here is where the fantasy skill comes in. The following things are indisputable, when a team adds a draft pick by trading away a keeper, he is making his team better by improving his draft outlook, he is gaining ground on AT LEAST 8 other teams by doing so. Look at what the NFL teams are able to do by trading away assets to gain draft picks, the more higher end draft you have, the better your chances of hitting on them is. By swapping out a 22^nd round draft pick for a 15^th round draft pick, you have made your team better, even if only marginally.

Now, as BJ would clearly argue, yeah you may be getting a leg up on 8 other teams, but I REALLY don’t want to help this one team. Remember, you’re making that team pay for it. They have to lose that draft pick to pay for the keeper. If you assume market value is achieved in every trade based on our bidding war system, then the manager is paying full freight for that player. The advantage that the selling team has, is that it is a surplus value for them. The 4^th player that our league allows to be controlled from your end of year roster is a junk cost on draft day. During this draft season, BJ had replacement level keepers in Marcell Ozuna and Blake Treinen to trade away, both with 3 rounds of value. I can attest to my own negotiations with them on this front that they were seeking far above replacement level cost for these players (or at least Blake Treinen). I say above replacement level value here when comparing to past trades in the league. Given that Bauer and Hoskins were traded for 8^th and 8^th and a swap of 10^th round picks respectively. This sets a baseline for what above-replacement-level keepers are worth.

Given that a team’s 4^th keeper is a surplus value, any team should be willing to trade away this keeper to gain a leg up on the field. Every. Time. Cory understands this and last year, his surplus picks he gained with trades with Paul and Michael led him to a title.

So, why should a manager pay for a keeper at all given this math? Value. The direct cost of trading for a keeper is absorbed in one year of penalty because we only trade draft picks for the current year. If you can trade for a keeper with multiple years of eligibility left or if you think a player is primed for a breakout, you can gain free value in future years or even this year, as long as you can stomach the cost that it is hurting you now. Every keeper trade is intended to be a win-win trade for all involved, adding value to their team to give them a leg up on the field.

The cost for any given keeper is allowed to be at the manager’s discretion, but every manager must identify if he has assets available to him to sell to gain a leg up on the field. Some managers have understood this, others….well maybe now they will.