2019 Preseason Blog Series Part 5: Draft Review!

It was another great day in Floored history. We finally had some success with the video chat. Max brought a webcam into the draft party in Jupiter, Michael and Dean had a sweet setup at Dean’s house (with Jessie and Erin rooting on), meanwhile Cory, Josh, and Matt all joined in from their places in Philadelphia, Roanoke, and Nashville.    

So, what happened on Sunday?

This draft was the most unpredictable draft we’ve had in a long time. With the rule changes this season, I had no idea how starting pitchers and sluggers would be prioritized. In the end, not a whole lot changed for everyone, strategy wise.

The standings that Yahoo shows in the draft room aren’t accurate because they count the totals from everyone on your draft. For example if you take that stolen base asset in the 22^nd round, he immediately goes to your bench and his stats won’t count. Of course we play in a daily-moves league so you can insert and remove players when they’re off. But for consistency’s sake, I only added up everyone’s starting hitters. Pitchers are easier to maximize your entire roster’s value, so I kept all of their stats. Running our standard power rankings calculation, you can see who set themselves up well for the year and who has some work to do.

		AB*	R	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K	AVG	SLG		IP*	W	K	ERA	WHIP	QS	SV+H
George's favorite	Dean	5936	947	341	975	85	765	1557	0.262	0.497		1162	83	1284	3.25	1.15	77	146
Gators ready to play	Paul	5910	896	257	868	82	705	1276	0.273	0.470		1123	69	1228	3.00	1.07	73	157
Fantasy Golf Anyone?	Max	6096	909	288	921	93	571	1327	0.275	0.486		917	59	993	3.35	1.14	70	51
Bourbon Street Blues	Keith	5874	864	260	867	103	538	1376	0.271	0.475		923	56	1015	3.30	1.19	56	149
MAX WILL B LAST	ARTHUR	5590	838	227	743	158	564	1447	0.263	0.447		1164	80	1350	3.14	1.12	85	126
Hebrew Nationals	Cory	5969	944	292	915	117	709	1445	0.273	0.487		1124	80	1180	3.35	1.13	85	107
Nashville Marketer	Matt	5906	915	293	910	137	648	1536	0.268	0.486		1104	75	1235	3.38	1.17	78	101
One Mortgage Michael	Michael	5492	877	259	825	104	667	1270	0.275	0.479		1400	98	1556	3.41	1.15	111	89
Smoak That Ish	BJ	5949	884	224	815	181	601	1162	0.278	0.455		979	67	1070	3.25	1.17	59	158
I Hate Fantasy	Dave	5949	905	279	884	103	667	1337	0.264	0.473		1086	75	1217	2.98	1.10	80	131

		TOTAL	h	p
Hebrew Nationals	Cory	4.143	3.500	5.000
George's favorite	Dean	4.214	4.250	4.167
I Hate Fantasy	Dave	4.857	5.625	3.833
One Mortgage Michael	Michael	5.071	5.250	4.833
Gators ready to play	Paul	5.143	6.000	4.000
Nashville Marketer	Matt	5.500	4.625	6.667
Smoak That Ish	BJ	6.000	5.625	6.500
Fantasy Golf Anyone?	Max	6.143	4.500	8.333
MAX WILL B LAST	ARTHUR	6.143	8.375	3.167
Bourbon Street Blues	Keith	7.429	7.000	8.000

Cory has a slight edge on Dean to lead the pack, while the bottom tier of Brian/JOSH, Max, Arthur, and Keith will be starting the year a step behind the pack. Let’s dive in and find out why:

The storyline that most caught my eye was once again starting pitching. For those that read the (updated) blog last week, you will know how valuable starting pitching is this year. The ability for starters to now contribute positively in 5 categories is a boon to their value. But despite this, the league’s reaction was a collective shoulder shrug emoji. Here is how the number of starting pitchers drafted has evolved the last few years.

Year	Number of Staring Pitchers drafted
2016	51
2017	53
2018	41
2019	47

While there was a very minor increase in number of starters drafted from last year, we didn’t even get back to where we were 3 years ago. Michael hit starting pitchers the hardest, leading to him having the highest number of IP, Wins, pitching Ks and Quality starts, but his ratios are elevated because most starters have higher ratios than fantasy level relievers.  Max and Keith went the opposite direction drafting the fewest number of projected innings. Time will tell what the best strategy was.

Cory kept Gerrit Cole and otherwise didn’t draft a pitcher until the Sean Doolittle in the 8^th round. His first starter was Zack Wheeler in the 10^th! Cory ended up with a middling number of innings projected, but his ERA is projected near the back of the pack. The pitching projections don’t love the Hyun-Hin Rhyu pick with him only projected for 109 innings, but with Cole anchoring the staff and what should be a solid hitting base, Cory will have plenty of room to stream pitching early.

Dean’s draft strategy is built to win the title of draft day projections winner, but his keepers weren’t quite as good as Cory’s so Dean was unable to make up the full gap he would have had on draft day. Dean’s projection calculations and day-of-excel coordination are incredible.  Dean is out on a limb this year for Clayton Kershaw and him being somewhat healthy and Gary Sanchez being head and shoulders above the rest of the catcher pool. Dean was also the buyer on Craig Kimbrel in the 13^th round and had some very solid late round values in Mike Moustakas and Paul deJong.

Coming in projected 3^rd is Dave. Dave’s offense is looking very middle of the pack but his pitching is projected well. Dave took Jacob DeGrom in the first round but then didn’t take another pitcher until thie Jose Berrios/Dellin Betances fiasco that placed Berrios on Dave’s team in the 10^th round. Dave hit relief pitchers hard in the back half the draft taking 5 relievers with his last 8 picks. This helped his projected ratios and SV+H category. One of the steals of the draft was Dave taking uber prospect Eloy Jimenez in the 12^th round. This gives Dave a high end keeper prospect on day 1 of the year.

Michael sits in 4^th coming out of the draft, but his team is overloaded at pitching and has a catcher projected to have 100 At Bats. Michael was expecting the league to go harder after starting pitchers so he grabbed his guys early when they fell to him like Chris Sale, Jameson Taillon, and Rich Hill. Michael ended up with far more innings and strikeouts pitching projected than the rest of the league, indicating he didn’t read the market correctly. Time will tell if he was ahead of the curve or projecting a wave that will never come. The back half of Michael’s hitters are guys that aren’t projected well that he expects to take steps forward like Williams Austadillo and Ahmed Rosario. He will need to be effective early in the seaon on the free agent wire.

Paul also hit relief pitching hard, taking 4 relievers in the first 14 rounds and 5 RPs overall. Paul should have a steady offensive base early though, taking proven, steady, players. Chris Paddack was a slick buy in the 16^th round. A spring training strikeout darling, Paddack might make the opening day roster and would immediately become a high end starting pitcher for as many innings as he throws.

Matt is projected 6^th right now coming off of his excellent keepers. I really like a number of Matt’s late round grabs like Corey Knebel, Buster Posey, Chris Archer and Luis Castillo. Matt didn’t have any over reaches and made a well rounded team. Matt is dragged down by being on the lower end of the total innings pitched projection. With some good early season adds he will be very competitive.

Team BJ might wish they had let drunk Brian take care of the draft, I kid I kid. Josh was very proud of the no-research he did but unfortunately the projections aren’t too stoked about his team. Keeping a relief and a starting pitcher, Josh didn’t draft another pitcher until the 6^th round and he took the injured Luis Severino at that. BJ will only have 4 starters on their roster to start the year grouping them in with Max and Keith projected for below 1000 inings pitched. Plenty of time to make up innings pitched though, of course, and there are certainly good starters left on the wire.

Max is projected 8^th even with his high end keepers. Max took two starting pitchers in the first 3 rounds before taking all hitters until the 15^th round. Max only took 2 relievers and is well behind the pack in the saves plus holds category. I don’t mind this as a strategy because the amount of replacement level saves plus holds contributing players is likely to be large. Max projects well in total at bats projected, AVG and SLG, but trails most of the league in the rest of the offensive categories. He will need players like Carlos Correa, Marcell Ozuna, and David Dahl to be strong for him to be competitve. Max will also have some lineup positioning issues when Vlad Jr gets called up. Max will have not have enough spots for all his 3^rd baseman and highly drafted outfielders.

Arthur had one of the more emotional draft days, threatening to quit the league if he didn’t get relief pitcher Dellin Betances in the 7^th round. Arthur stayed on brand, drafting relief pitching hard taking Kenley Jansen at pick 25 overall. Under the new scoring system that was one of the biggest reaches of the draft. Arthur made some good picks later in the draft stealing Victor Robles in the 17^th round and Shohei Ohtani in the 15^th. 

Keith made the most flag planting picks of the draft, most notably going after the injured Francisco Lindor at pick 4 overall and then coming back with Ozzie Albies at pick 24. Keith will need strong performances by these players this year to be competitive. I liked a number of his late lottery tickets taking Byron Buxton in the 19^th round and Ross Stripling in the 16^th. Both of these players have the upside to carry a team. Dave was very jealous that Keith stole Nomar Mazara from him, I see a trade coming in the near future.

That’s a wrap for Floored draft day 2019. We all know this is only a piece of the puzzle. Good luck to everyone, I hope we all crush it this year. May your lottery tickets all be winners and your stars be healthy and studly.