Week 4: The Sprint Begins

 

Josh, his dad, and Paul got together for golf recently. Here’s to hoping nobody breathed on each other while taking the selfie.

2020 Year to Date Power Ranks
TOTAL			HITTING			PITCHING
1	BJ	3.57	1	Arthur	3.63	1	Michael	3.00
2	Michael	4.36	2	BJ	4.00	2	BJ	3.00
3	Arthur	4.93	3	Cory	4.63	3	Max	3.67
4	Dean	5.00	4	Dean	4.88	4	Paul	4.00
5	Dave	5.14	5	Keith	4.88	5	Dean	5.17
6	Paul	5.43	6	Dave	5.00	6	Dave	5.33
7	Max	5.50	7	Michael	5.38	7	Ryan	6.67
8	Cory	5.79	8	Paul	6.50	8	Arthur	6.67
9	Keith	6.50	9	Max	6.88	9	Cory	7.33
10	Ryan	7.21	10	Ryan	7.63	10	Keith	8.67

We had our first takedown of a first place team on Sunday as BJ (really it’s just Josh at this point) caught up to Michael. Michael has been on a pretty awful run since the first ten days of the year, and BJ has caught fire behind a number of players performing well and Josh doing a great job with streaming and managing the team. BJ has gone from 9^th to 1^st in two weeks. If you ever needed motivation that things are very much alive for everyone in the league, this should be it. There’s 6 weeks left in the season but you need to make your move now.

Believe it or not we’re a third of the way through the season, so let’s go team by team to see what has worked and what hasn’t.

BJ will be testing my observation that hot and cold runs tend to last around 2 weeks in fantasy baseball. BJ has been scorching for two weeks now. BJ started this run in the middle of week 3 and during week 4 hit .295 with 19 home runs with and ERA of 2.6 and a WHIP of 0.92 over 58 Innings. They’re on quite the heater right now. A number of players are leading this charge for them, but mostly it can be tied to JT Realmuto, Anthony Rendon, and…Brandon Lowe? Aaron Nola and Dinelson Lamet have been carrying the load on the pitching side, with Lamet looking like one of the best breakout picks of the year on the pitching side.

Michael has taken quite a fall from grace since he posted the single highest ranking ever recorded in Floored at the end of the first 11 days. Since then Michael has hit below .250 and slugged below .400 with a team ERA above 4.20. Nonetheless, his superior first 11 days keep him right near the top of the ranks. He has mostly avoided injuries and COVID players which has helped keep his AB and IP totals up, without having to stream much. Though when COVID PPDs did hit him last week he adjusted well to fill an active roster as much as possible…he just did it with players that hit .200 and struck out way too much. With the cold streak hopefully ending soon, he is in fine shape to make a run.

Arthur has bounced from last place after 11 days to third today. Throwing 95 innings last week, he gained ground in the pitching categories…even if his ERA was 5.70 for the last week. He also gained ground in the At Bat race. After COVID PPDs set him back in week 2 to only 188 At Bats, he’s had 260 each week since then, and with a .288 AVG and .495 SLG last week, those good at bats have vaulted him up to third.

Dave has been on a slide since week 2 as well. His team has hit .230 since the first 11 days and his at bat total last week did him no favors, 237. Dave leads the league in SVH and his IP total has struggled in step with it. Being middle to lower on the league IP ranks was part of Dave’s strategy coming in to the year, but his hitters will need to show out better if the strategy is going to work, Fernando Tatis can only carry this team so far.

Dean has bounced around the rankings as much as any other team in the league. He has been as high as second and as low as seventh in the middle of a week. Dean is on paternity leave again so he has the time to grind on things like trade offers and pitcher streaming. This will be a good test for him to see if the more time he puts in, the better his team results are. Two weeks in and the results are mixed. Juan Soto has been fire since returning fro COVID and Bryce Harper is nearing his MVP form again. Unfortunately Dean hasn’t found too many other breakouts. Dean is predictably pacing near the top of the league in IP and will continue to monitor the field to watch where he needs to place his focus.

Max has been the surprise of the year after the draft day debacle. Riding three of the biggest pitching breakouts in Shane Bieber, Lance Lynn, and Max Fried, Max leads the league in ERA and QS while being second in WHIP. Max has some ground to gain in W and K because his IP count could be better. Max’s offense has some hitters performing OK, but Gary Sanchez and Amed Rosario are really bringing him down. Can the Cinderella Story have a happy ending?

Paul has also been bouncing around the rankings a good bit, also reaching as high as second and as low as seventh in the middle of a week. He’s coming of a bit of a down week, hitting .240 with mostly middling numbers everywhere else. Paul finds himself in the middle of the pack, there are 6 teams within 10 rotisserie points of each other right now. Paul made a good grab of Jessie Winker last week who immediately hit 2 home runs for him but the rest of Paul’s offense is just meandering right now. Paul has ridden Sonny Gray all year but his bullpen hasn’t provided him much SVH support.

Cory is the last team in the middle class pack right now. Mookie Betts is carrying the load and Matt Olson has been great, but not much else has gone right for Cory now that Bo Bichette appears to be out for awhile. Injuries have hit Cory harder than most, losing Verlander, Charlie Morton, and now Bichette. Cory is near the back of the pack in innings pitched which is dragging down his ranking. With some good streaming here he can still be very much in contention.

Keith sits in 9^th right now. Keith has one of the best draft picks on the year right now in Mike Yastrzemski, we can only hope he meant to take him and not Mike's grandpa from a 1970 retro fantasy draft. Keith has had a number of offensive players show out for him so far including Freddie Freeman and Jose Ramirez also being off to very good starts. It’s been the pitching that has held him back. None of his pitching draft picks have panned out to this point. Streaming has never been Keith’s forte, but he’ll need to pick up the Innings Pitched pace if he wants to contend this year.

Finally, we have Ryan. After a hot start, Ryan has cooled off and is sitting in last. Most notably Ryan is also last in Innings Pitched. There is a significant correlation between IP and pitching standing, so if you want the easiest way to gain ground in the rankings, stream pitchers. Ryan has also gotten injured losing two of his top 5 picks in Ozzie Albies and Stephen Strasburg to what appear to be longer term injuries. Yu Darvish and Trevor Story have been great, but Ryan could probably use to be a bit quicker to drop some of his lower draft picks and under performing players like Scott Kingery and Lourdes Gurriel.

Well, that’s it for now. Next week we’ll look at some league-wide breakouts and busts because it sure feels like there’s been more busts than breakouts. Tune in then to find out more.