Week 12: Guest Blog: Carl recaps his matchup against the first place team
Arthur has the priceless (a beautiful wife), but not the pricey (a member of baseball's best rotation, Pedro Severino).
Let me begin with a note about why I (Carl) have blog access this week and what it might mean for future communication. As a busy father, Michael could use some help in the creation of meaningful analysis. He’s able to churn out the power rankings on schedule based on having built an efficient process, but sometimes struggles to make the linkage between the data/sabermetrics and the league standings. That connection is long-term and sometimes not a 100% correlation, so his presentations require a good bit of effort.
My offer of help did not include handling the power ranking analysis as I have limited skills and limited interest in the roster management aspect of the competition. I am much more focused on the week-to-week (and day-to-day) gamesmanship. So, the benefit to managers who have the energy to plow through Carl volume and Michael complexity is that you’ll get two perspectives for as long as I can hold my new ‘job.’ Michael will continue to produce power ranking stats weekly with analysis when his family obligations permit. I’ll supplement his work with periodic match/strategy writeups reflecting how I perceive the managers chasing individual points each week.
As my detailed work must be documented real-time, I’ll focus on one match per week. It is completely fine if you only pay attention when your match is in the spotlight. I do ask, though, that you click on my blog each week even if your squad is not covered and you don’t really read what I’ve presented. Michael makes good use of his big-brother tracking skills and if the hit-counts don’t support my claim you guys care about strategy, he’ll pull my microphone.
My first coverage is my own match with Dave in order to gain some respect by presenting at least one team on which I am an expert. We would LOVE for others to volunteer for a turn sharing their strategy each week so that these blogs don’t become redundant at best and self-centered at worst.
Week #12 –
Competitive Analysis
Dave (1st
Place, .584) vs Carl (7th place, .500)
Both Carl and Dave entered w#12 following hotly contested w#11 matches, so the weekend prep moves were nothing of great note. Carl jettisoned three weekend-injured players ranging in value from meaningless (Bader) to solid competitor (Hudson). His replacements covered a similar spectrum ranging from good pickup (Soto) to curious as a generous evaluation (unvaccinated Duran prior to a trip across the border). Dave’s prep moves were straight from his year-long playbook. He added positional flexibility (Lux) and RPs (Castillo) early in the week to cover off days dropping streamed pitchers and expendable talent (J.P. Crawford) used tactically the prior week.
Really the only noteworthy strategy decision related to prep work was Carl trying to decide whether to smile or not upon hearing the news of Harper going down. Dave is in first place and Harper will be back in time for the playoffs. It is appropriate to enjoy the temporary struggles of winners and reducing Dave’s roster spots by one is a reasonable talent handicap, so I smiled. Still smiling, actually.
Monday (Carl 6,
Dave 4)
As is normal for Monday, the offensive strategy for both parties was to move the shells around to minimize open positions and maximize counting stats. Carl did a reasonable job covering 9 of 11 slots with only one unavoidable wasted MLB game. Dave was masterful staffing 10 positions and leaving no able-bodied batter on the bench. Hitting results reflected the dual good management with both teams accumulating solid counting stats and passable ratios.
On the pitching side, Dave opened with a mild and successful gamble starting S. Gray against CLE. That move put him into a commanding lead on the pitching side with 14 run-free innings, +2 Net Wins, 2 QS starts, a terrific WHIP and a wheelbarrow load full of Ks. Without a scheduled SP, Carl loaded up on RP and was able to pick up a SV via a clean inning. With a suspension looming, getting any contribution from Iglesias early is vital.
Tuesday (Dave
10, Carl 4)
Carl’s first roster move was more strategic that tactical, dropping S. Brown in favor of M. Harris. Keeping the hot hitting Brown for the 7-game week against Dave’s power lineup would have been the logical move, but Carl is fanatical about filling positions. Brown’s status as a 2nd OAK team member and a strong-side platoon player created the risk of more off days going forward. Harris might be a flash in the pan but seems locked into significant playing time in ATL due largely to good defense.
Offensive lineup management remained good with only a single spot left open for Dave. Batting results for Carl remained good, but Dave’s were better generating significant but surmountable leads in most hitting categories. Of note were Dave’s 10+ daily totals in both R and RBI. Carl continued to deploy an army of baserunners for fear that Dave’s new SB machine (Berti) would reach base. It will be interesting to see if/when that paranoia will end.
Gamesmanship started early in the week on the pitching side of the ledger. Based on Dave’s exceptional Monday showing and fearing that microscopic pitching ratios would be needed to win those points, Carl benched Wacha against TOR. Dave responded by benching Baz leaving Tuesday’s matchup Ray vs Kershaw albeit not a level playing field (Kershaw at Coors). Ray outdueled Kershaw but without the run support to gain the W. RPs entered the fray in a big way Tuesday with 5 clean appearances (4 on Dave’s side). The net result of two days RP activity remained a toss-up while the SP stats slightly favored Dave.
Wednesday AM
(Dave 10, Carl 4)
Dave began making moves early Wednesday with the intent to end the Carl’s ratio-focused game plan. Hoping to goad Carl into starting pitchers beyond the McClanahan/R. Ray/Fried/Severino standard, he started Dunning for TEX against KCR (52% win line) and T. Walker for NYM against HOU (47%) in two early afternoon games. Carl took the bait gambling that probable ERA/WHIP deterioration is a small price to pay to get back in the hunt on QS, Ks and Net Wins. Both Clevinger (61% win line vs ARI) and A. Wood (63% vs DET) were deployed as soon a Dave’s moves were locked in. In a related (and seemingly gutless) move, Carl hedged his SFG/DET bet on Wood with a swap-out of G. Soto for Doval as his final RP spot. Sacrificing SV/Hold performance for SP success seemed prudent given Dave’s 8-2-1 record in that Sv/Hold category.
Wednesday (Dave
8, Carl 4)
Dave’s aggressive afternoon SP deployments described above were a huge success from a ratio perspective, a huge success from a QS perspective, a modest success from a Ks perspective and an anticipated failure from a Net Wins perspective. More importantly, the gambles dragged Carl into a volume escalation which Dave continued with another mid-grade (Kopech) start Wednesday night. The ERA/Whip battle became both close and very sensitive. Both parties seemed content to play tit-for-tat with starts mid-week. One bad outing on either side, though, and the streaming gloves might come off. A. Wood surrendered Carl’s first earned runs against for the week Wednesday offset by a great outing from Clevinger and the Save-for-Win hedge described above. Dave was headed for a 12-8 advantage in starts but not at all assured of turning the volume advantage in a points win on the pitching side.
Through Wednesday, there was not much to report on the hitting side from a tactical perspective, but Dave’s stronger roster coming into the week was running up sizeable leads in all the offensive categories. Roster adds by Carl later in the week targeting runs produced are all but assured and Dave preempted two good options Wed by pulling W. Adames and Kwan off the market. If Carl cannot get his average batting order position of 4.9 closer to Dave’s 3.6, the Runs and RBIs will be Dave’s and out of reach by end-of-day Friday.
Thursday (Dave 6,
Carl 8)
A big part of the motivation for this blog is an attempt by Carl to rebut Michael’s premise that power rankings (more so than strategy) determine a manager’s season-long success. Today’s entry will be very short because Thursday was unequivocal evidence against Carl’s counter-premise.
Carl and Dave employed the identical two-step strategy
Thursday.
1.
Identify every player on your roster without the
notation ‘no game.’
2.
Locate a position into which said players could
be deployed.
In fairness, Dave’s additions from Wed were both at least partially motivated to maximize the success of his step one and they did produce a contribution of 2 Walks, 1 Run and 3 RBI. Otherwise, Thursday was strategy free.
Carl had a huge offensive day attributable exclusively to roster luck (or depth, if you are feeling generous). Five home while the likes of Alonso, Ohtanti, Mountcastle and even Bogaerts were unavailable is beyond good fortune. The resultant Runs, RBIs and SLG impact drew Carl within striking distance in all three of those categories. Even limited to 4 starters and his 2 streamers, Dave was able to extend his advantage in AVG and Walks. It was a productive day for both parties even with the thinking caps remaining on the shelf (along with most of the players).
Friday AM (Dave
6, Carl 8)
Strategy returned to the forefront Friday with Dave picking up C. Santana for Walks in a nip and tuck battle for that point. Carl took advantage of Thursday’s hot hitting and shifted add strategy from batting to old-fashioned streaming. While his batting order wart still remained, Carl opted to pick up the last few scheduled starters with favorable weekend MLB team matchups. Going into the weekend with the aforementioned 4.9 average batting order slot could be fatal, but the alternative of dropping the players who yesterday went HR crazy was unthinkable. The two SP pickups reduced Dave’s projected start advantage to just 2.
From a critique standpoint, both Carl and Dave lose management rating points to Cory for not grabbing Snell Ks in the Friday LAD start. With Sv/H still in play, Carl may have been protecting P lineup positions for his army of 7 RP. Dave might have been hesitant to target Ks from a guy whose last target was Harper’s thumb. Clubhouse cohesion matters even in the fantasy world. If Ks remains close through Sunday, though, somebody is going to blame Cory which doesn’t happen much to that peaceful guy.
On full-schedule days, deployment of SP continues to be in the strategic forefront and Friday the burden was on Carl to make the first move. He chose to put Whip, ERA and Net Wins at risk by starting Cobb. In addition to the ratio risks (and it is looking more and more like Net Wins is a ratio stat), opening the door to Dave on Sv/Hold might backfire in a big way. There is something nerve racking about benching well rested J. Lopez and R. Montero against the best RP corps in our league.
Offensively lineups were crafted primarily around opposing pitcher matchups with all hitting stats except Ks and AVG hotly contested. There was one tactical approach difference as Dave squeezed his speedster into an OF spot while Carl left his designated runners idle. There was no question that Berti would run. Carl was gambling that he won’t hit (or walk).
Friday (Dave 8,
Carl 5)
The match pitching quality on Friday passed beyond great to flat out unsustainable which will likely lead to a weekend of conservatism/paranoia. The psychosis actually started late Friday following dueling gems delivered by Fried and J. Ryan. Carl had A. Cobb staged to pick up a 2nd start which undoubtedly would have delivered the 2 Ks needed to catch up in that category. But with the ERA battle sitting at 1.42/2.26, the WHIP score at .71/1.06 and Net Wins all tied up, Cobb was benched 5 minutes before game time. The 10pm waffle had the unintended benefit of wasting a lineup slot that would have been used on a disastrous blown save by J. Lopez, but the underlying fear was unjustified as Cobb ended up delivering 5 solid innings.
Despite the full allotment of 10 RP started, Friday didn’t produce a save or hold for either party with Kimbrel closing out a non-save opportunity and Doval taking a loss on an unearned run.
Carl played Dave even on the offensive side Friday with two notable exceptions. The anticipated Berti running rampage arrived as the speedster swiped two bases despite an official 0-3 at the plate. In addition, Dave’s Adames stream delivered a grand slam and two additional runs.
A one-move-at-a-time chess match has developed on the pitching side with every SP point category subject to a flip with every start. Carl had the first move, ignoring the 45% win line in TOR and deploying McClanahan at 12:07pm. Dave began the day with S. Gray (66% win line vs BAL at 2:10pm) and Cortes (61% at CLE, 6:10pm) seated but at the ready. The final move at 7:15pm belonged to Carl and soft-tossing Winckowski (at CHC, 56%). While it is hard to imagine either party being aggressive, Carl might be less risk-averse knowing he has one fewer SP options Sunday.
Dave’s 5 RP fit nicely into his two-start day, but Carl was forced to make some decisions with his 7-man RP squad. Playing from a 5-2 advantage in Sv/Holds, Carl hedged on both the BOS/CHC game (Houck/Robertson) and the LAA/HOU game (Iglesias/Montero). Duval remains available should Iglesias’ suspension suddenly kick in.
Offensively, Dave stuck with his two streamers who have delivered as planned (Santana, walks, Adames, everything) and his designated runner leaving only an aging Votto and Kwan vs the NYY rotation on the bench. Carl had some more difficult decisions, benching some wheels and a potential double header in favor of favorable pitching matchups and an emphasis on HR/RBIs.
Saturday (Dave 6,
Carl 6)
The see-saw defensive battle played out in full with every lineup spot covered and every pitcher deployed delivering at least some value. McClanahan delivered in Cy Young style followed by S. Gray contributing a handful of Ks and narrowly avoiding a Loss. Cortes offset the Flanagan masterpiece albeit without the double-digit K contribution. Carl was forced to put the ratios at risk and de-benched Winckowski into his 7th P spot which had been reserved for that contingency. Winckoswski came through with the game of his short career but was tagged for a loss based on an unearned run caused in part by his own defensive lapse.
Carl managed his RP corps masterfully collecting the only Sv/Hold available to him as part of his hedge-hedge lead management strategy. More important than who Carl started was who he benched with Duran and Soto idle and Lopez blowing his second save in as many days. Dave simply started five RP who produced to the tune of 3 Ks, 2 Holds and relief win. Carl was hearing footsteps from the league’s best Sv/Hold manager.
This offensive battle was best described as disaster (Dave) and bigger disaster (Carl). Dave’s timid ratio line of .133/.244 and his lone HR actually produced a 4-2-2 victory in the batting categories for the day. The horrid results were more regression than poor game management or even shoddy roster construction. Dave stuck with Berti who is headed toward the most productive 1-hit, no-HR weekly stat line ever.
Sunday AM (Dave
6, Carl 6)
What appeared on the surface Sunday morning to be a tie matchup was from that in reality. Dave had clear advantages in both tie categories and comfortable leads in 4 of his 6 points. In contrast, Carl held only one lead that qualitied as even semi-safe.
Coming into the home stretch, the deployment of SP will drive 4 of the 5 in-play pitching points. That is not to say there will be any meaningful strategy decisions to be made on either side. Behind on both counts, Dave has no reason not to make a couple of stabs at reducing his 2.28 ERA and 1.03 WHIP deficit. Worst case Baz (1:37pm) and Singer (12:05pm) hurt the ratios but contribute to the likely flip of Ks over to Dave’s column. Similarly, it is hard to imagine a scenario in which Carl doesn’t counter with Kuhl (3:10pm) even knowing that is s Coors start. By 4:10pm when Ray and Kershaw toe the rubber, the ratio stats (including Net Wins) may or may not be decided, but both managers playing aces for their Ks is all but assured. Even the decision to release streaming bulk reliever Hjelle (4:05pm) won’t be as tactical as the obscure name might imply. Unless Ks are completely out of reach, all able-bodied pitchers will be played by Carl. The one and only Sunday move that carries some consequence will be Dave’s use of Wainwright (7:08pm) for the final chapter.
Relief pitching will require some pre-match lineup
attention as both managers carry more RP (5 Dave, 7 Carl) options than
available RP spots (3, 4). It would take
some good fortune for Dave to net +2 in Sv/Holds and it is unlikely that he
will forego SP spaces to increase his odds.
Indeed, it might be more likely that Dave (or Carl) declare the Sv/Hold
battle over and bench RP’ers for fear of an ERA blowup.
The hitting battle is competitive, but not anything that will spawn creative strategy. Ks have been decided and a variety of stats (SB, AVG, HR) are in play, so there is no ‘type’ of hitter whose deployment would be advantageous (or dis-advantageous). About the only scenario that might knock either manager off of a balanced attack would be an MLB day off for Berti.
Sunday afternoon
(Dave 7, Carl 5):
What seemed like a pretty predictable decision matrix was disrupted by Singer’s 9 Ks in a short outing. Baz was in the midst of an uneventful start when the clock struck 3:10pm and Carl chose to stick with the plan of risking ERA/WHIP for a run at Ks and QS. Kuhl was released to play as planned only to watch Tampa break the Baz game open just minutes later. Baz finished off the QS nearly locking in Net Wins and Ks for Dave while triggering Carl to pull his non-name bulk reliever for fear of an ERA/WHIP disaster. R. Ray was left in with hopes that he and Kuhl could outduel Kershaw and Wainright from a QS perspective.
The offensive situation for Carl was faring a little better. Both teams were hitting (at least compared to Saturday) with 5 and 6 hits in 20 AB at 4pm. Carl had the temporary benefit of breaking two ties (BB and HR) and the SLG point was toggling back and forth with each out.
Sunday evening (Dave
7, Carl 6):
The second shift saw the resolution of the Sv/Hold point, but not early enough for either party to pull mooted RPs. The big results news, though, was a classic Coors blowup by Kuhl (complete with grand slam) as he turned an almost assured QS into an 0-5 deficit which later turned into a COL comeback (wiping out Kuhl’s loss). The 5 runs put ERA back in play pending a R. Ray/Kershaw dual and Wainwright tie breaker while the COL comeback removed the mathematical certainty from Dave’s QS point victory. Coors will be Coors and Carl was (in hindsight) foolish to go with Kuhl.
Despite being in the middle of 10th inning victory rally (including 2 RBI), Berti never got positioned to run allowing Laureano to swipe (pun intended) the SB point for Carl. A surprise HR by Harris moved the SLG needle off AB toggle to edge Carl. AVG slowly locked resolved to Dave with Carl running out of time 5 hits down.
Sunday night (Dave
6, Carl 6):
The ‘night shift’ represents decisions surrounding the single Sunday Night Baseball game at 7:00pm game. Strategy is the last round of start/sit decisions for rostered players on the two competing teams (today PHI and STL) based on the known results from the other games. There are, however, usually stray games that can complicate the decisions beyond simple algebra.
From a complexity standpoint, this Sunday was simple. Neither Dave nor Carl had any top rated hitters involved and Dave had one on major option in the STL starter, Wainwright. Absent ‘bleed-over’ activity from 4pm games, the start decision was a no brainer. Dave was up a 3 in Net Wins, down 1 in Ks and a longshot to flip ERA (needing 8 scoreless from Wainwright) making a 1 point flip and 7-5 victory the 90+% outcome. Dave deployed as was prudent.
Most of the bleed-over activity was inconsequential. Several late and extra-inning games produced
nothing positive leaving BBs a dead heat.
One game, though, disrupted rational plans turning the Wainwright start
from an opportunity into a required risk.
Pre-night shift, Kershaw tossed a gem which included the 7 scoreless IP that
put ERA within Wainwright’s reach Kershaw
had also contributed 8 Ks and left the game with no chance at a Loss. But there was work left to be done from an
MLB standpoint and Kimbrel was not up to the task. After striking out a batter to tie the K
category, he took a comebacker to the back triggering classic meltdown. Minutes later, Kershaw’s probable win was
erased, a Loss was logged and 3 earned runs were charged to Dave. ERA was now effectively resolved (Wainwright
needing 19 scoreless innings as opposed to 8) and the Net Loss battle was back
on the table. The impact of Wainright’s
efforts were finally crystal clear, but Dave could only watch. A single K and Wainwright Win or no decision
would deliver a 7-6 match win. The
nearly assured K and Loss would lock in a 6-6-6 tie. Wainwright appeared up to the task yielding
only 1 run for 5 IP, but he faltered in the 6th and the usually
shaky PHI bullpen held down the fort.
Overnight (Dave
6, Carl 5):
Morning coffee did not go well for Carl as the dreaded
‘stat correction’ reclassified a J. Duran SB from Friday into a fielder
indifference bringing Berti—I mean Dave—into a SB tie.
Monday Morning
Quarterbacking
·
Initial
Roster Work: Dave A, Carl A. An overall evaluation of roster management is
beyond the scope of this write-up, but ongoing roster moves as they impacted
the week under study are fair game for analysis. Both parties grade ‘A’ with Dave’s early June
pickup of Berti more than curing a persistent roster wart and his use of
several roster spots as makeshift infirmaries paid off most notably with
Baz. Carl’s wheelbarrow-load full of RP required
weeks to build, but dealt Dave a rare Sv/Hold defeat. He also assembled a team capable of doing
battle in SB.
·
Roster
Moves - Selection: Dave A, Carl
C. Dave’s addition of Adames, Kwan and
Santana provided 8 RBIs and 5 BBs which were crucial to his 1-0-1 record in
those categories. Carl’s 4 moves
included two players (Harris and Winckowski) who contributed offset by two more
who were risky longshots.
·
Roster
Moves – Deployment: Dave B-, Carl B+. Dave’s managed coverage and matchups well
keeping himself in play on all categories through Sunday. In hindsight, though, a case could be made
that Votto’s power was needed and also that the ERA/Loss risk of trying to play
back from a 2-5 Sv/Hold deficit was risky.
Carl also handled deployment basics well but was slow to concede Ks and
QS in light of a heavy disadvantage in scheduled starts. Marginal SP used on Sat and Sun needlessly
put pitching ratios needlessly at risk with a limited likelihood of return.
·
Future
Planning: Dave B-, Carl B: Neither party utilized all their week 12
moves or even jettisoned all their dead wood, but both made some investment in
their week 13 matchups. Carl picked up a
nice double stream with good matchups (M. White) and reclaimed a disappointing
OF prospect coming off IL (Susuki). Dave
grabbed a top 130 hitter with positional flexibility scheduled for a Monday
double header.
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