Week 12: Wins Above Expected and Strength of Schedule
Robert got married! He and Felicity appear to have had a
beautiful wedding. The Floored Fantasy Baseball League Blog extends its warmest
wishes to the happy couple.
MAX?! Atop the power ranks?! Yes this is real life. Other top teams Arthur, Michael, and Dean all has uninspiring weeks opening up the door to Max to surge in the Power Ranks…though he also didn’t exactly have a week to write home about. "BUT HOW UNINSPIRING WAS IT"…I’m sure you’re asking. Well, I now have a stat for that, Wins Over Expected (WOE).
I developed a new tool for analyzing (independently of power
ranks) how good each of our weeks was. I can compare how well each of us did in
each category and then compare it to the average of our league in that category
for the whole year. Then I can figure out how many points SHOULD we have gotten
relative to the average outputs. You excited?! I was. Here we go. Week 12:
|
Manager |
Opponent |
Actual Week Wins |
Expected Week Wins |
Wins over Expected |
|
Michael |
Keith |
4 |
6.41 |
-2.41 |
|
Arthur |
Max |
4 |
4.91 |
-0.91 |
|
Paul |
Cory |
4 |
5.79 |
-1.79 |
|
Robert |
Brian/Josh |
5 |
6.01 |
-1.01 |
|
Keith |
Michael |
9 |
7.53 |
1.47 |
|
Max |
Arthur |
10 |
6.74 |
3.26 |
|
Dean |
Dave |
3 |
7.38 |
-4.38 |
|
Cory |
Paul |
10 |
9.38 |
0.62 |
|
Dave |
Dean |
10 |
8.49 |
1.51 |
|
Brian/Josh |
Robert |
9 |
8.50 |
0.50 |
What this means is that based on what…for example, Dean’s…outputs
were, he should have gotten 7.37 points from his matchup, but he only got 3 points
in the Yahoo Standings because he ran into Dave who had what seemed like a huge
week. This led to a delta of -4.37, an unlucky week. With Dave only scoring a 7.98 WOE as opposed to the 10 Actual Wins Dave had, this likely just means that Dave won a number of close
categories against Dean. Which, if you look at their matchup, is what happened.
Think of WOE like a luck factor, where higher numbers means you’ve
been lucky. Per the expected week wins stat, it was actually Cory who had the
best week last week with a 9.35 Expected Week Wins total.
For the season here is how things stand:
Max has been crazy fortunate whereas Keith has been dealing with a voodoo doll it appears (more on this in the next section regarding strength of schedule. The idea behind this WOE metric is that you can add or subtract the number from the Yahoo Standings and get your deserved wins and losses total. Max should be 18 games lower and Keith should be 10.5 games higher, for example. This would really compact the standings.
WILD
ok next let's talk about Strength of Schedule
You knew it was coming, after finding a cool way to analyze week over week stuff, it was time for us to dive into who’s played the easiest and toughest schedules.
Through 12 weeks, here is the power rank of each teams’
total opponents stats:
|
2024 YTD Power Ranks of Each Managers' Opponents |
||||||||
|
TOTAL |
HITTING |
PITCHING |
||||||
|
1 |
Keith |
2.86 |
1 |
Robert |
2.00 |
1 |
Keith |
2.67 |
|
2 |
Paul |
4.50 |
2 |
Keith |
3.00 |
2 |
Paul |
3.33 |
|
3 |
Robert |
4.86 |
3 |
Michael |
4.38 |
3 |
Dean |
4.00 |
|
4 |
Dean |
4.86 |
4 |
Paul |
5.38 |
4 |
Brian/Josh |
5.17 |
|
5 |
Michael |
5.36 |
5 |
Arthur |
5.50 |
5 |
Cory |
5.50 |
|
6 |
Arthur |
5.93 |
6 |
Dean |
5.50 |
6 |
Dave |
5.67 |
|
7 |
Cory |
6.07 |
7 |
Cory |
6.50 |
7 |
Arthur |
6.50 |
|
8 |
Brian/Josh |
6.14 |
8 |
Dave |
6.88 |
8 |
Michael |
6.67 |
|
9 |
Dave |
6.36 |
9 |
Brian/Josh |
6.88 |
9 |
Max |
6.67 |
|
10 |
Max |
7.86 |
10 |
Max |
8.75 |
10 |
Robert |
8.67 |
The rest of us really have nothing to complain about with how hard our schedules have been…unless we want to snark Max for playing a laughably easy schedule. But don’t laugh too hard because we’d all be laughing at ourselves for letting Max beat us all.
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